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Euro 2020 Prediction: France remain favourites; Belgium hot on the heels

France will head into the knockout stages with a 19.6% chance of being victorious.

Ronaldo and Benzema

Bengaluru, June 24: The Euro 2020 has almost reached its business end with the completion of the group stage and the battelines drawn for the round-of-16.

With the group stage over and stage set for pre--quarterfinals, myKhel.com takes a look at the latest projections from the Stats Perform prediction model.

The Stats Perform's Euros Prediction model estimates the probability of each match outcome by using betting market odds and team rankings. The odds and rankings are based on historical and recent team performances.

The model considers the strength of opponents and the difficulty of the path to the final by using the match outcome probabilities with the composition of the groups and the seedings into the knockout stages.

The Prediction model simulates the remainder of the tournament 40,000 times. By analysing the outcome of each of these simulations, the model returns the likelihood of progression for each team at each stage of the tournament to create our final predictions.

France atop

France atop

In search of a second consecutive final appearance at the EUROs, France will head into the knockout stages with a 19.6 per cent chance of being victorious in the showpiece.

Didier Deschamps' side are unbeaten in 10 games at major tournaments since losing the EURO 2016 final, and with a nod to the Tour de France beginning this weekend, stand as the favourites to finish on the top step of this year's podium.

Belgium edge closer

Belgium edge closer

Hot on the heels of the French are Roberto Martínez's Belgium, who are currently holding a 17.9 per cent chance of winning the tournament.

The Red Devils have won nine of their 10 major tournament games since Martínez took charge, but will have to get through reigning champions Portugal - who have a 5.8 per cent chance of retaining the trophy - in opening their path to the final.

Spain moves up

Spain moves up

Meanwhile, Spain make up the top three favourites to win this year's competition.

As per the latest projection, the La Roja is holding a 12.9 per cent chance of winning their first major tournament since EURO 2012.

England on the right side

England on the right side

As has been well documented since the completion of the group stage, England have found themselves on the "right side" of the draw, albeit with the complex matter of Germany to get through before any dreams can be realised.

This is reflected in their 8.5 per cent chance of going on to win EURO 2020 - currently the sixth-best projection among the remaining 16 teams (only marginally behind the Netherlands in fifth).

Home Nations struggle

Home Nations struggle

The picture is not quite so favourable for the first of the Home Nations to face the Round of 16, however. Wales will play the first of this year's knockout stage games, but hold just a 0.8 per cent chance of going on to win EURO 2020.

Rob Page's side are the underdogs to emerge from their game against Denmark, projected at a 33.3 per cent chance to advance at the Johan Cruijff Arena.

Story first published: Thursday, June 24, 2021, 17:26 [IST]
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