Australia vs Bangladesh: Why Bangladesh Are Closing In on Historic Win

Bangladesh are six wickets away from a result that would rank among the biggest in their Test history, but the most significant development on Day 3 in Darwin was not simply the 228-run lead they built.

It was the way they repeatedly found Australia's top order.

By stumps, Australia were 161/4 and still 67 runs behind, with Cameron Green unbeaten on 43 and Alex Carey on 19. Bangladesh had already been asked to bat for a long second innings, but instead of allowing Australia to dictate the final phase of the day, their bowlers struck early and kept the hosts under pressure.

That has left Australia with a very different problem on Day 4: they are not merely trying to build a fourth-innings target. They first have to get themselves ahead.

Bangladesh keep making Australia start again

The pattern of the Test has become increasingly difficult for Australia.

Bangladesh's first-innings total of 426 gave them a 228-run advantage, with Mehidy Hasan Miraz's 65 extending their lead after Australia had threatened to close out the innings.

Josh Hazlewood was exceptional, taking 6/89, but even his six-wicket haul could not prevent Bangladesh from building a substantial advantage.

Then came Australia's second innings.

Hasan Mahmud, who had already taken 6/55 in the first innings, removed Jake Weatherald for a duck and Travis Head for 17. Australia had barely begun their chase before they were two wickets down.

Marnus Labuschagne and Steve Smith temporarily repaired the damage, but neither could carry Australia through the evening. Labuschagne made 31 before Taijul Islam removed him, while Smith fell for 44 to Mehidy.

That left Australia 161/4 and still behind.

The significance is that Bangladesh have not allowed Australia's experienced batting line-up to establish itself for long enough. Every time the hosts have appeared capable of building momentum, another wicket has followed.

Even Hazlewood's historic day has not changed the equation

There was a major individual achievement for Australia in the middle of all this.

Hazlewood became only the ninth Australian to take 300 Test wickets, joining Pat Cummins, Mitchell Starc and Nathan Lyon in an extraordinary group of active Australian bowlers to reach the landmark.

His six-wicket haul was also crucial in keeping Bangladesh from extending their lead even further.

Yet Bangladesh still walked away from the innings with a 228-run advantage.

That perhaps best captures the nature of the match so far. Australia's best bowler has produced a milestone performance, but Bangladesh have continued to control the larger contest.

Australia now need Green and Carey to change the game

The unbeaten partnership between Green and Carey is therefore crucial.

Australia need to erase the remaining 67 runs simply to draw level. Only after that can they begin thinking about setting Bangladesh a target.

The problem is that the longer Australia bat, the more they will need to balance accumulation with the need to leave themselves enough time to bowl Bangladesh out.

A substantial lead could still change the match. But Bangladesh have already demonstrated that their attack can consistently find wickets, while Australia's top order has struggled to convert starts.

That makes the first hour of Day 4 potentially decisive.

If Bangladesh remove Green and Carey early, Australia could suddenly find themselves staring at an innings defeat.

If the pair survive and Australia get beyond Bangladesh's first-innings total, the match could take another turn.

Bangladesh are now playing for history

For Bangladesh, this is no longer simply about competing in an away Test.

They are within touching distance of one of their most significant victories, having never previously won a Test in Australia.

There are still two days to play and Australia's lower order has not been tested yet, so the result is far from certain.

But Bangladesh have done the difficult part: they have built the lead, survived Australia's best spell of the match and then broken into the Australian top order.

Now they need to finish it.

For Australia, the equation is becoming increasingly uncomfortable. They need six wickets to survive the Test, while Bangladesh need six wickets to move from a commanding position to the brink of a historic victory.

Day 4 will determine which of those two possibilities becomes reality.