ICC Word Cup 2023: Afghanistan qualification scenario for semifinal after loss to Australia

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Afghanistan qualification scenario for ICC World Cup 2023: Afghanistan's dream run at the ICC World Cup 2023 was jolted by a stunning loss at the Wankhede Stadium on Tuesday (November 7). We take a look at how the defeat affected their chances of reaching the semifinals.

Australia grabbed the third of the four semifinal spots as Glenn Maxwell's unbelievable 201* recovered the Aussies from 91/7 to 293/7 while chasing 292. They join India and South Africa among the qualifiers while Pakistan, New Zealand, and Afghanistan will fight it out for the remaining spot.

The three nations are locked at eight points each with a game left to play each, making the net run rate scenario a deciding factor for spots on the table. New Zealand are in the fourth spot at the moment with a healthy NRR of +0.398 while Pakistan are in fifth with +0.036. Sixth-placed Afghanistan are in the negative zone at -0.338.

However, net run rate won't come into play for Afghanistan win their next match against South Africa on November 10 at the Narendra Modi Stadium in Ahmedabad. A win also may not suffice if Pakistan and New Zealand or any two of them win their respective last games as Afghanistan's negative NRR will make them the least favourite of the three to progress.

Afghanistan will have to beat South Africa by a massive margin in order to win the game and chasing the target with their in-form top-order batters will be a favourable situation as well. This will also make winning the toss crucial on a pitch that facilitates batting as various permutations and combinations will come into play.

New Zealand will play their next match on Wednesday (November 8) against Sri Lanka at M Chinnaswamy Stadium in Bengaluru while Pakistan will have the advantage of playing the last of three as they will take on already-ousted and former champions England on November 11 at the Eden Gardens in Kolkata.