IND vs AUS: What will happen if India lose/draw in Melbourne Test? How can they qualify for WTC Final?

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All eyes are on the Indian cricket team as they battle it out in the 4th Test against Australia at the Melbourne Cricket Ground.

The 4th Test of the Border Gavaskar Trophy is ongoing and the visitors find themselves in a spot of bother.

Australia amassed a massive 474 runs in the first innings. Steve Smith scored 140 runs while debutant Sam Konstas shone with a decent 60 along with Usman Khawaja (57) and Marnus Labuschagne (72). In reply, the Indian team has found things difficult. Apart from Yashasvi Jaiswal, no other batters have managed to capitalize as they are 244 for 7. Rohit Sharma's team is trailing by 230 runs and will have to battle again to avoid a follow-on. With 8 sessions of the match still to play, Australia are in the driver's seat.

What will happen if India draw in Melbourne?

If India manage a stalemate in Melbourne, it will drag Australia's PCT to 57.29, while India's PCT will also drop to 54.62. In this case, a victory in Sydney would leapfrog India's PCT over Australia and thus provide them a bigger chance in the WTC Final qualification race.

In this case, Australia will have to win both Test matches against Sri Lanka in order to get ahead of India in the WTC points table.

What will happen if India lose in Melbourne?

If India lose in Melbourne, they will be behind in the series 1-2 with the final match to play in Sydney. Apart from that, it will also significantly reduce India's chances of reaching the World Test Championship Final.

If India fall to defeat at the MCG, their PCT will drop from 55.88 to 52.78. Meanwhile, Australia's PCT will rise from 58.89 to 61.45.

Can India qualify for WTC Final if they lose in Melbourne?

India are currently placed 3rd in the WTC standings. If they lose in Melbourne they shall remain 3rd and the defeat would jeopardize their chances. But after a defeat in Melbourne (if India lose), they will have to win the final Test in Sydney.

A win in Sydney will mean India's PCT will go up to 55.26, while a defeat for Australia will take down their PCT to 57.84. India, with the Sydney Test, end their Test campaign in the WTC 2023-25 cycle, but Australia will still play two more matches against Sri Lanka. Definitely, India won't have WTC Final qualification in their own hands and Sri Lanka will have to help in their quest.

Sri Lanka will have to remain Unbeaten

If Sri Lanka remains unbeaten in the two-match Test series against Australia, the Aussies' PCT will drop below India and thus Rohit Sharma and his troops can overtake them in the WTC standings.

Interestingly, if the series between Sri Lanka and Australia ends with two drawn matches, both India and Australia will end with the same number of points having played the same number of matches. Also, the prior series ending in 2-2 between India and Australia will deadlock things in the table.

India WTC Final Qualification Scenario - after Loss in Melbourne and Win in Sydney

Hence, India won't be out of the WTC Final race if they lose in Melbourne, but qualification won't be in their control anymore. But if the Indian team draws in Melbourne, it shall also mean the WTC Final qualification is not in their hands.