India's WTC final chances take a hit as South Africa climb to fourth spot after beating Bangladesh in Mirpur

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India was put in a spot of bother after South Africa defeated Bangladesh by seven wickets in the first Test and climbed to fourth spot in the update World Test Championship (WTC) 2023-25 table.

Before the start of the series, South Africa needed to win five of their six Test matches, and the Proteas have crossed their first hurdle comprehensively. A win in each of their next five Test matches will help them finish in the top two. They will be in contention even if they win four out of the remaining five matches but they will have to depend on the result of matches featuring India, Australia and Sri Lanka.

South Africa are the favourites to beat Bangladesh in the second Test as well, and then they play four Test matches at home. Sri Lanka will tour South Africa for two matches in November-December, and the host Pakistan in the Boxing Day Test in Centurion, and a new year Test in Cape Town from January 3. Beating South Africa hasn't been easy for any Asian team, and it will definitely not be for Sri Lanka and Pakistan.

South Africa have a point percentage of 47.62 after beating Bangladesh in the first Test. Sri Lanka, who are left with two Test matches in the current WTC cycle (both against SA) are ahead of them at third with 55.56 PCT.

Reigning WTC champions Australia (62.50 PCT) are at second behind table-toppers India (69.06) PCT. India lost the first Test against New Zealand, and is currently playing the second Test in Pune. A third Test between India and New Zealand has been scheduled in Mumbai, before the team flies to Australia for the five-Test Border-Gavaskar Trophy which is very likely to decide who plays the WTC final at the Lord's from June 11 to June 15.

According to cricket statistician Krishna Kumar, Australia leads the race for the World Test Championship (WTC) finals with an 84% chance, ahead of India at 57% after the Mirpur Test between Bangladesh and South Africa.

South Africa remains in contention with 46%, and Sri Lanka have a 10% hope. New Zealand, who are ranked fifth (44.44 PCT), have a slim 3% chance.

As per the updated World Test Champion (WTC) final scenario, India will have to win four of their last seven Test matches of the WTC 2023-25 cycle. Therefore, winning the remaining two Test matches against New Zealand becomes extremely important for them.

Australia also need to win four of their remaining seven Tests. They will be travelling to Sri Lanka for two Test matches after the India series. Sri Lanka will have to win three of their last four Tests, and New Zealand each of their remaining five red-ball matches to finish in the top two and qualify for the WTC 2025 final.

Further, India would also be in trouble if they win four matches and fail to even draw the other three Tests. This scenario would leave them with a PCT of 64.04%, opening the door for Australia, South Africa, and even Sri Lanka to overtake them. Notably, South Africa's PCT can surge to 69.44% if they win all their remaining matches.