T20 World Cup: Will Afghanistan qualify for Semi-finals ahead of India and Australia? Group 1 qualification scenarios

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T20 World Cup: Afghanistan's win against Australia in the Super 8 in St Vincent on Sunday has opened up the Group 1 points table, making it a three-way race for a berth in the semi-finals of T20 World Cup 2024.

Australia would have qualified for the T20 World Cup 2024 semi-finals with India, had they defeated Afghanistan. An Australian win would have seen Bangladesh and Afghanistan crash out of the tournament.

However, the mighty effort from Afghanistan to avenge their World Cup 2023 defeat against Australia, have given them a good chance to book a semi-finals berth now.

Super 8 Group 1 table-toppers India are still in a happy place after winning both their Super 8 matches. They have four points with a positive Net Run Rate (NRR) of +2.425. Australia are second with two points in two matches with a positive NRR of +0.223. Afghanistan also have two points from two games with a NRR of -0.650. Bangladesh have lost both their games and are reeling at the bottom with a negative NRR of -2.489.

T20 World Cup semi-final qualification scenario for Group 1

• India: India are comfortably sitting at the top, and already have a foot in the semi-finals. Their win against Australia on Monday, June 24 will confirm it. Even if they lose, they are expected to finish ahead of Afghanistan (if they beat Bangladesh) on the basis of a superior NRR. Notably, India NRR is best in Group 1.

What if India vs Australia Super 8 match is abandoned due to rain?

• India will qualify even if their match against Australia is abandoned due to rain.

For India to be eliminated, Australia will have to beat India by 41 or more runs, while Afghanistan will need to beat Bangladesh by 83 runs to surpass India's NRR.

Will Australia qualify for semi-finals?

• Australia: They desperately need a win against India. In case they lose, Afghanistan will have a chance of beating Bangladesh in their final Super 8 match on Tuesday, June 25. If Australia and Bangladesh both lose, Bangladesh will also have two points at the end of Group 1 Super 8 round. NRR will come into play. Australia have a far better NRR than Afghanistan, and should move forward to the semi-finals even if Afghanistan beat Bangladesh in their last Super 8 game.

• Afghanistan: They would hope India to beat Australia before themselves beating Bangladesh on Tuesday. That's the easiest route for them. In case Australia win against India, Afghanistan would need a massive win against Bangladesh to surpass India or Australia's NNR. (If Australia beat India by one run, Afghanistan will have to beat Bangladesh by 36 runs to surpass Australia's NRR).

• Bangladesh: Bangladesh will have to beat Afghanistan, and hope India to beat Australia. This will leave all these three teams with two points each. However, these two fulfilled conditions might also fail to push them to the last-four round because of their terrible NRR.