WTC Final 2025 Scenario: How Does The Race For Lord’s Showdown Look After New Zealand’s Defeat to England?

WTC Final 2025 Scenario: The race for the World Test Championship showdown at the home of cricket - Lord's in London next year is set to go right down to the wire with five teams in play for two spots.

India lead the pack following the comprehensive win over chasing Australia Down Under last week in Perth, while South Africa became another favourite in the tight race for the title showdown following a thumping win over Sri Lanka on Saturday (November 30).

New Zealand could have also made some ground in the WTC standings, but lost the crucial clash against England at the Hagley Oval in Christchurch on Sunday (December 1), leaving the Kiwis with their task cut out in the coming weeks.

As the WTC 2023-25 cycle enters the final weeks with all the teams in contention doing battle in the longest format, here is how the state of play in the WTC Final race looks as of December 1:

What is the current standings in the World Test Championship points table?

India leads the WTC table with 61.11 percentage of points won followed by South Africa, who have a win percentage of 59.26. The defending champions, Australia are in third position with 57.69 percentage of points won.

New Zealand and Sri Lanka, the other two challengers, are placed fourth and fifth respectively with a win percentage of 50.00 each following their recent defeats in the longest format.

With 13 more Tests left in the current cycle before the title showdown, a lot could change in the next few weeks. We could see new leaders as South Africa and Sri Lanka face off when India and Australia, the initial favourites to book a 2023 rematch, also collide. Here is a look at the WTC 2025 Final Scenarios:

1. India's WTC Final Scenario

Two-time finalists are well-placed to make a hattrick of finals since the launch of the World Test Championship in 2019. India need to win three off their remaining four matches in the Border-Gavaskar Trophy to ensure qualification without depending on other results. The best possible finish for India in WTC 2023-25 could be 69.30 PCT.

2. South Africa's WTC Final Scenario

The Proteas stand a very good chance of making it to their first-ever WTC Final, having gone on a winning run in 2024. The remaining three games against Sri Lanka and Pakistan at home are extremely important for South Africa.

If South Africa continue their winning streak, they'll be safely placed to make the World Test Championship irrespective of how the other sides fare. Three more wins will see South Africa finish with a 69.44% win PCT, which will guarantee them one of the spots.

3. Australia's WTC Final Scenario

The 2023 WTC champions dropped to third following the recent results in the World Test Championship. However, they still have the best chance to qualify for next year's final, with six Tests still left in their current WTC cycle. Their best possible finish will see them end on 71.05 percentage of points won.

The defending champions will still need to win a minimum of four of their remaining six matches to stand a chance to defend the title they won in 2023. They will at least need to draw 2-2 with India and then win the away series in Sri Lanka to remain in contention for a place in the final.

4. New Zealand's WTC Final Scenario

The 2021 World Test champions had put themselves in contention for a second WTC Final berth after an away 0-3 whitewash of India last month, but they suffered a dent following the loss to England in the home series opener.

Now even winning their remaining two matches will not see New Zealand breach the all-important 60% point percentage mark on the World Test Championship table. They are still mathematically in contention, but need need favourable results elsewhere to make it to Lord's next year.

5. Sri Lanka's WTC Final Scenario

The Island nation were expected to be tough challengers in the race for the Lord's final after wins over England and New Zealand, but a massive loss to South Africa slightly dented their chances.

However, they are still alive in the race with three more matches remaining. If Sri Lanka win the second Test against the Proteas, they could still lead to a grandstand finish on home soil with the top two spots potentially still to be decided in the final series of the cycle.