WTC Final 2025 Scenario: How is The Race For Lord’s Showdown Shaping up After India Lose Adelaide Test?

WTC Final 2025 Scenario: The race for the World Test Championship showdown at the home of cricket - Lord's in London next year is set to go right down to the wire with four teams now in play for two spots.

Australia had reclaimed the top spot following the 10-wicket win over India in the pink ball Test in Adelaide on Sunday (December 8), but there were new leaders on Monday (December 9) after South Africa went top with another win over Sri Lanka.

New Zealand, however, dropped out of the race after losing back-to-back matches against England with the latest defeat coming at the Basin Reserve in Wellington, where Tom Latham's side suffered a 323-run loss to Ben Stokes' England, who were already out of contention from reaching the WTC Final.

As the WTC 2023-25 cycle enters the final weeks with all the teams in contention doing battle in the longest format, here is how the state of play in the WTC Final race looks as of December 9:

What is the current standings in the World Test Championship points table?

South Africa, who have a win percentage of 63.33, lead the WTC table followed by the defending champions Australia, who have a 60.71 percentage of points won, while two-time finalists India dropped down to third position with 57.29 percentage of points won.

Sri Lanka remained in fourth despite the loss with a win percentage of 45.54, leaving only three sides battling for the two WTC Final spots in Australia, India and South Africa.

With just a few more Tests left in the current cycle before the title showdown, a lot could change in the next few weeks. We could see new leaders as South Africa, India and Australia will all be in red ball action. Here is a look at the WTC 2025 Final Scenarios:

1. South Africa's WTC Final Scenario

The Proteas are well-placed to reaching their first-ever WTC Final, having gone on a winning run in 2024. The remaining two games against Pakistan at home will be extremely important for South Africa.

If South Africa continue their winning streak, they'll be safely placed to make the World Test Championship irrespective of how the other sides fare. Two more wins will see South Africa finish with a 69.44% PCT, which will guarantee them one of the spots.

2. Australia's WTC Final Scenario

The 2023 WTC champions had dropped to third in the World Test Championship following the loss to India in Perth. But Australia bounced back with an impressive win in the Pink Ball Test in Adelaide to reclaim the top spot, leapfrogging South Africa and India.

Australia have the best chance to qualify for next year's final alongside South Africa as they still have six Tests still left in their current WTC cycle. Their best possible finish will see them end on 67.65 percentage of points won.

The defending champions will still need to win a minimum of three of their remaining five matches to stand a chance to defend the title they won in 2023. They will at least need to draw 2-2 with India and then win the away series in Sri Lanka to remain in contention for a place in the final.

3. India's WTC Final Scenario

Two-time finalists suffered a big dent in their hopes to make a hattrick of finals. But can still reach the Lord's showdown by winning all their remaining matches in the Border-Gavaskar Trophy to ensure qualification without depending on other results. The best possible finish for India in WTC 2023-25 could be 64.04 PCT.

4. Sri Lanka's WTC Final Scenario

The Island nation were expected to be tough challengers in the race for the Lord's final after wins over England and New Zealand, but back to back massive defeats to South Africa may have dented their chances.

With their pecentage of points won dropping to below 50, Sri Lanka's chances seem to have dented. However, they could still play spoilsport to one of the WTC chasing team when they host Australia in the final series of the cycle at the start of next year.