WTC Final Scenario: India's chance dips to 32 percent after losing 2nd Test, Australia and South Africa favourites

Add as a preferred source on Google

WTC Final Scenario: India's chance to qualify for the World Test Championship (WTC) final took a massive hit after losing the second Test against New Zealand by 113 runs at the Maharashtra Cricket Association (MCA) Stadium in Pune.

India need to win four of their remaining six Test matches of the ongoing WTC 2023-25 cycle. The best possible scenario for them would be beating Mumbai in the third and final Test against New Zealand and then winning three of the four Test matches in Australia.

Beating New Zealand in Mumbai would also be a daunting task for India. Upbeat New Zealand can find the conditions favourable on the red-soil pitch of Mumbai. Their pacers made good use of pace-friendly conditions in Bengaluru and bundled out India for 46 in the first innings.

Also, beating Australia three out of five times in their own backyard will also not be easy. Considering all the factors, India's qualification chances for the WTC final has dipped to 36 percent.

Australia and New Zealand emerge as favourites for WTC final 2025

Post the historic win against India, New Zealand have jumped to fourth spot in the latest WTC 2023-25 standings with a PCT of 50. India are still at top with a point percentage of 62.82. Australia are second with 62.50 PCT, and Sri Lanka third with 55.56 PCT.

However, it's fifth-placed South Africa, who have a great chance to finish in the top two and qualify for the WTC final. While New Zealand need to win each of their remaining four Tests (1 vs India, and 3 vs England at home), Sri Lanka three of their four Tests (2 in South Africa, and 2 vs Australia at home).

South Africa are in a favourable spot because of their upcoming lineup of Test matches. They defeated Bangladesh in Mirpur and are the favourites for a win in the second Test in Chattogram as well. The Proteas are then scheduled to play two Test matches each against Sri Lanka and Pakistan at home. They have to win four of these five matches.

Australia also need four wins in their remaining seven Test matches. After the 5-Test Border Gavaskar Series against India, they will tour Sri Lanka for two Test matches.

As per the analysis of data scientist Krishna Kumar, Australia have 88 percent chances of qualifying for the WTC 2025 cycle, while South Africa are second behind them at 53 percent. New Zealand (15 percent) are fourth in the list after India (32 percent).