AFC Asian Cup 2023: How Indonesia Can Qualify for Knockout Stages?

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Indonesia football team finished a creditable third in Group D of AFC Asian Cup 2023 as the football-mad nation lost to four-time champions Japan 3-1 in their last group match on Wednesday (January 24). However, finishing third means Indonesia have a chance to qualify but there's no certainty yet.

The Southeast Asian nation, who crucially defeated Vietnam 1-0 in their second group game, ensured third place in the group irrespective of the defeat to Japan. However, losing by two goals to Japan made their next-round qualification doubtful as it made their goal difference weaker.

Indonesia qualify for AFC Asian Cup 2023 knockout stages if:

• Oman draw or lose against Kyrgyzstan in Group F
• Bahrain lose by a margin of three goals to Jordan in Group E
• Bahrain lose 2-0 to Jordan in Group E

Indonesia don't qualify if:

• Oman and Bahrain win their respective matches
• Oman win and Bahrain draw their respective matches
• Oman win and Bahrain lose by a margin of one goal

We have breakdown the rules further for you to understand why the abovementioned scenarios will come into play for Indonesia to qualify for the knockout stages for the first time. Before that, let's take a look at the detailed Group D points table.

AFC Asian Cup Group D Points Table

Finishing third in the group meant Indonesia, which is also a realistic finish for the side, are now eligible to place themselves in the race for the four third-placed teams out of the six groups. We take a look at the Third-place table before further discussion.

With the top four qualifying, Indonesia are currently holding the last qualification spot and have surely finished ahead of China. However, with Oman and Bahrain playing their respective last group matches on January 25, things may change for worse or good for Team Garuda.

There's a possibility that Bahrain and Indonesia will be tied on points at at the end of the group stage matches tomorrow and may have to fight for the last qualification spot if Oman defeat Kyrgyzstan. As per AFC rules, goal difference will come into play if two teams are tied on points.

To keep it simple for Indonesia, they would like to see any of Bahrain and Oman to lose tomorrow if they want to progress to the knockout stages. Since Bahrain, who have goal difference of -1, play first tomorrow against Jordan, a draw or a loss by margin of just one goal will be enough for Bahrain to progress.

A Bahrain victory may lead to Jordan, who are top of Group E with four points, dropping to third place with South Koreans facing minnows Malaysia in the other group game. Jordan (4 points in 2 games) dropping to third place won't help Indonesia as they already have more points than Team Garuda. So a draw or a loss for Oman in their Group F game against Kyrgyzstan will be more favourable for Indonesia to go through without any worries