Arsenal approach the second leg of their Champions League last-16 tie with Bayer Leverkusen in a strong position, yet Mikel Arteta remains cautious. Kai Havertz’s 89th-minute penalty in Germany secured a 1-1 draw, giving Arsenal a home advantage on Tuesday but not, in Arteta’s view, any guarantee of progress.
Arteta has stressed that Leverkusen’s quality and recent form demand respect. Leverkusen held Bundesliga leaders Bayern Munich to a 1-1 draw, showing the organisation and intensity that Arsenal expect to face again. Arteta’s staff studied that match closely, using it as a key reference for their tactical preparation at Emirates Stadium.

Under Arteta, Arsenal have built a strong Champions League home record. The team have won 13 of 16 home matches in the competition, drawing two and losing one. That single defeat came against Paris Saint-Germain, who won 1-0 at Emirates Stadium in the semi-finals in April 2025, before lifting the trophy.
Historical data in Europe also supports Arsenal’s position. Across major European competitions, Arsenal have gone through in 17 of 20 two-legged knockout ties when they avoided defeat away in the first leg. One of the three failures did arrive under Arteta, when Sporting CP knocked Arsenal out on penalties in the 2022-23 Europa League round of 16.
Analytics are also in Arsenal’s favour ahead of the Leverkusen visit. The Opta supercomputer rates Arsenal as having a 79% chance of reaching the Champions League quarter-finals. The same model gives Arteta’s side a 28% probability of winning the entire competition, underlining their position among the main contenders this season.
Asked about what will decide the tie, Arteta delivered a measured response. "A lot of factors will contribute to us being in the quarter-finals, Arteta told reporters on Monday. We need to have every element in our favour to achieve that. Watching them play against Bayern, it was very similar. They are really well coached, with a clear structure. We know what we have to do in front of our crowd, and hopefully we are going to do it."
Key numerical markers around Arsenal’s European campaign and Leverkusen tie can be summarised as follows.
{TABLE_1}Despite the focus on Leverkusen, much discussion around Arsenal in recent days has centred on Max Dowman. The teenager scored in the 2-0 Premier League win over Everton at Emirates Stadium on Saturday. At 16 years and 73 days, Dowman became the youngest goalscorer in Premier League history, placing the academy product firmly in the spotlight.
Dowman’s involvement this season has been steady rather than constant. Across all competitions in 2025-26, Dowman has made seven appearances, starting twice. Those outings total 236 minutes on the pitch. Arteta has managed Dowman’s playing time carefully, balancing development with the demands of top-level fixtures.
Arteta was asked whether Dowman is prepared for more regular minutes, possibly even in the Champions League. The head coach highlighted the need to respond to match situations and Dowman’s condition, rather than setting a fixed schedule. Arteta pointed to Dowman’s attitude and performances as reasons to keep the option open.
On Dowman’s progress, Arteta said: "Yeah, regularly, depending on what you call regularly. Depending on the game and how he reacts, I think his reaction has been really positive, and in relation to what we need in the game, there's always a possibility [he will play]. To do what he did at such a moment is very rare to see or almost impossible. He's done it, and now it's football and what you've done a few days ago is not relevant any more, it's about the next one."
As Arsenal prepare for Leverkusen at Emirates Stadium, Arteta’s side carry a favourable scoreline, strong home record and positive data trends, yet no sense of certainty. Respect for Leverkusen’s structure, the need for precise execution, and the careful handling of talents such as Dowman shape Arsenal’s approach to this last-16 decider.