Arsenal Aims To Overturn Deficit In Women's Champions League Second Leg Against Lyon

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The Women's Champions League semi-final first legs delivered thrilling goals and intense drama. Both English teams face a straightforward task in theory: they must stage comebacks to reach the final. Chelsea suffered a 4-1 defeat against Barcelona, while Arsenal's challenge seems less daunting after a 2-1 home loss to Lyon, the eight-time champions.

Arsenal had opportunities at the Emirates Stadium but failed to capitalise, resulting in punishment from their opponents. They managed 11 attempts, with four on target, yet only Mariona Caldentey's penalty in the 78th minute found the net. This goal equalised Kadidiatou Diani's early strike, but Melchie Dumornay secured Lyon's advantage for their home leg.

Arsenal aims for their second Champions League final since 2006-07 when they became the only English team to win the competition. However, they've been eliminated in each of their four semi-final appearances since then and six out of seven overall. Arsenal has never advanced from a losing position after one leg in two previous instances.

Lyon has been eliminated from just two of their 27 ties when winning the first leg away. Yet, three of the last five teams losing at home in the first leg have progressed to the next round. Arsenal fans may worry about being knocked out by former manager Joe Montemurro.

Montemurro led Arsenal to major successes, including a Women's Super League title in 2018-19 and a Women's League Cup win. He also guided them to two FA Cup finals and two League Cup finals. Now at Lyon, he has filled Sonia Bompastor's shoes effectively, with Lyon scoring 27 goals this season in the Champions League.

Lyon ranks second only to Barcelona (40) for goals scored and xG (25.28) compared to Barca's 25.61. They've created 55 big chances, surpassing Arsenal by 14. Arsenal must contain Lyon early as they often start strong, scoring ten first-half goals across nine matches; only Barca (19) and Chelsea (15) have more.

Key Players and Strategies

Danger looms from all areas for Arsenal, especially from Diani. She boasts ten goal contributions this season (six goals, four assists), matching Barca's Claudia Pina (nine goals, one assist). Diani has had 83 touches in opposition boxes, second only to Real Madrid's Linda Caicedo (84), with teammate Dumornay close behind at 78.

Arsenal possesses threats too; Alessia Russo and Caldentey are among the top scorers with six goals each this season. Both were pivotal against Madrid in the quarter-finals and must shine again if Arsenal hopes to overturn their deficit against Lyon.

Overcoming Past Defeats

Caldentey is not just a scorer; she's created more chances than any other Gunners player this season with 18 opportunities crafted. Despite past struggles against French teams—winning just once in ten matches—Arsenal did beat Lyon away during the 2022-23 season with an impressive 5-1 victory.

Lyon remains formidable this season, conceding only three goals—the fewest alongside Barca—and boasting an xG against of just 5.72 compared to Arsenal’s third-best at 9.13. This match will see Arsenal become the first team ever to play fourteen matches in a single campaign.

The Opta Supercomputer Prediction

Lyon aims for their twelfth final appearance and ninth title win according to Opta’s supercomputer predictions which favour them with a 54.2% chance of advancing while giving Arsenal only a slim chance at victory (22.3%). A draw stands at a probability of 23.5%.