Arsenal And Manchester United Compete For Second Place In Women's Super League As Season Nears End

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The 2024-25 Women's Super League season is nearing its conclusion, with several key outcomes already determined. Chelsea has secured the championship, while Crystal Palace faces relegation after their debut in the top tier. The Champions League spots are confirmed, yet the battle for second place and the Golden Boot remains intense. Arsenal and Manchester United, separated by just one point, will clash on Saturday.

Despite recent setbacks against Aston Villa and Brighton, Arsenal is set for European competition next season. They aim for glory against Barcelona in the Champions League final on May 24. However, their form has dipped since a remarkable comeback against Lyon in the semi-finals. Arsenal's preparation is far from ideal, having lost three games recently after a strong league run.

Alessia Russo has been pivotal for Arsenal under Renee Slegers' guidance. She shares the top scorer spot with Khadija Shaw at 12 goals but boasts a higher expected goals tally (9.4 xG) than Shaw (8.3). Russo leads the league in shots (69) and shots on target (33), with a conversion rate of 17.4%. With Shaw sidelined, Russo aims to secure the Golden Boot.

Russo's journey this season wasn't smooth; she went goalless in her first four matches under Jonas Eidevall. Her fortunes changed under Slegers, scoring all her league goals across 16 matches from 8.1 xG and 60 shots. Her shooting accuracy dropped to 60.9%, but her finishing improved significantly.

United's goalkeeper Phallon Tullis-Joyce has been exceptional, keeping 13 clean sheets this season. She needs one more to match Mary Earps' WSL record of 14 clean sheets in a single season set in 2022-23. Tullis-Joyce is poised to win the Golden Glove in her debut season as United's primary keeper.

Maya Le Tissier could also achieve a milestone if United keeps another clean sheet, participating in 14 shutouts this season. Only Demi Stokes has more for a defender in one WSL campaign (15 with Man City in 2016-17). Meanwhile, Beth Mead aims for her 50th assist, leading WSL history in assists.

Arsenal's Recent Form

Arsenal's recent performances have been inconsistent despite creating numerous chances. Against Brighton, they generated an xG of 3.46 but conceded four goals from an xGA of 1.68. The Gunners had 25 attempts, with Russo and Caitlin Foord each taking five shots.

Their previous game against Villa saw them create just 1.5 xG from 16 attempts, highlighting inefficiency compared to their clinical display against Lyon where they scored four from just nine shots (1.2 xG). Facing United's robust defence will be crucial before meeting Barcelona.

Importance of Second Place

The race for second place holds significance due to changes in the Champions League format mirroring the men's competition. The third-placed WSL team enters qualification earlier than the second-placed team, who face a two-legged play-off to reach the main phase.

The Opta supercomputer initially predicted Arsenal would finish third (37.7%) and United fourth (57.4%), with Man City expected second. Historically, Arsenal has won their final WSL game in most seasons but struggles against United recently.

United has lost their final game twice in recent seasons against Chelsea but remains formidable against Arsenal historically with three wins out of ten meetings (30%). The Opta supercomputer favours Arsenal slightly with a win probability of 53.5%, predicting a draw more likely than a United victory.

No matter who claims this season's Golden Boot, it may be achieved with fewer goals than usual since Eni Aluko's nine-goal tally in 2016 (excluding Spring Series). It's likely that no player will surpass twenty goals this term as seen last time during the 2019-20 campaign.