Gary Neville believes Arsenal are now favourites for the Premier League title but expects a tense run-in. Arsenal sit five points ahead of Manchester City, though Arsenal have played one game more than Pep Guardiola's side. Neville expects nerves, yet still thinks Mikel Arteta's team will edge the race.

Arsenal beat Chelsea 2-1 on Sunday to strengthen their position, with Brighton up next on Wednesday. Manchester City host struggling Nottingham Forest on the same evening. Neville suggested Arsenal’s mix of quality, physical power and recent title-race experience may finally be enough to finish ahead of Manchester City.

The Opta supercomputer strongly supports Neville’s view of the Premier League title picture. Its data model currently gives Arsenal an 83.3% chance of finishing as champions. This statistical backing comes as Arsenal try to convert recent near-misses into success against a Manchester City squad packed with proven winners.

Set-piece strength has also underpinned Arsenal’s push for the Premier League title this season. Opta highlighted another decisive corner in the Chelsea win.

Neville sees this blend of resilience and detail as vital during a tense final stretch.

Arsenal’s March calendar looks demanding in every competition and could shape the Premier League title race. After Brighton, Arsenal meet Mansfield Town in the FA Cup. A Champions League tie with Bayer Leverkusen sits either side of a home league match against Everton, before an EFL Cup final against Manchester City on March 22.

Those fixtures create a heavy load that tests squad depth as well as mentality. Neville warned that injuries and match volume remain key risks. Arsenal must manage rotation while keeping rhythm in the Premier League title race, especially with Manchester City capable of strong late-season winning runs.

Arsenal Premier League title hopes tested by Guardiola and past failures

Neville stressed that psychological pressure is likely to build on Arsenal supporters and players alike. He said: "They have to look back on the last three years. They know this is going to be hard work. They've got 10 more weeks of pain, these Arsenal fans watching in the crowd, watching at home sometimes when they're away."

Neville continued to explain the emotional strain surrounding this Premier League title chase. "This is not going to be pleasant, it's not going to be easy. It's going to be anxious but they've got to enjoy the thrill of it, that's why they're here." Neville believes handling that anxiety is central to Arsenal’s prospects.

Past disappointments also weigh heavily on Arsenal’s current Premier League title bid. Neville said: "Every single time we come to Arsenal, and we've done this for a number of years - we go over to that 2004 year that's over there, halfway up across the stand and say they haven't won the league for 22 years. They have got to try to get rid of that."

He pointed out that recent battles with elite rivals should now help Arsenal. "In the last three years they've been up against City and Liverpool, and they've lost out in those battles. They've got to call upon the experiences they've had and dig in like you wouldn't believe,and they're doing that." Neville sees those lessons as crucial over the remaining weeks.

Neville also highlighted the specific challenge posed by Guardiola in the Premier League title race. "The one worry other than injuries and number of games is being up against Pep Guardiola's machine, who have won titles," he added. That sustained winning habit, in Neville’s view, is Manchester City’s major advantage.

Leadership inside the Arsenal dressing room was another theme. Neville said: "Gabriel Jesus has won the Premier League but he doesn't look like the kind of type who's going to get the players over the line on his own. The one question you would have is who is the player in that dressing room settling everyone down, composing them. We had a lot of experienced winners, and it is hard work but I do think they'll get there."

Arsenal Premier League title run-in fixtures overview

Arsenal’s schedule around this phase of the Premier League title race includes several key games across competitions. The sequence below shows how domestic and European commitments stack together during March.

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With a five-point cushion, strong set-piece output and analytical models favouring them, Arsenal enter the final stretch with a clear opportunity to secure the Premier League title. Neville expects stress, questions over experience and pressure from Guardiola’s Manchester City, yet still believes Arsenal now have enough qualities to finish the season as champions.