Arsenal Hosts Newcastle In Crucial Premier League Match For Second Place And Champions League Qualification

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Arsenal's position in the Premier League seemed secure for much of the season, but with two matches left, their second-place finish is uncertain. They face Newcastle United at Emirates Stadium, with only two points separating them. A win won't guarantee second place but will be crucial before their final match against Southampton. Newcastle needs four points from their last two games to secure Champions League qualification.

Newcastle has been successful against Arsenal recently, winning five of their last eight encounters across all competitions. This includes three victories this season: 1-0 in the Premier League and 2-0 in both legs of the League Cup semi-final. No team has beaten Arsenal four times in a single season before. Newcastle aims for their first league double over Arsenal since 1994-95.

Despite recent struggles against Newcastle, Arsenal remains favourites according to Opta's supercomputer. The model predicts a 47.7% chance of an Arsenal win, while Newcastle has a 27.5% chance of victory and a draw stands at 24.8%. Arsenal has lost just one of their last 20 home league games against Newcastle, winning 17.

Arsenal is winless in their last four home matches across all competitions, losing the last two. Their overall form includes five games without a win, though they managed a draw against Liverpool despite Mikel Merino's red card. Historically, Arsenal performs well in their final home league game, losing only once in the past 27 seasons.

The Gunners have an impressive record for final home matches, losing just once in the past 27 seasons. Their only loss was against Aston Villa in the 2010-11 season. The sole instance when they faced Newcastle as their final home opponent was in 1996-97, resulting in a 1-0 defeat due to Robbie Elliott's goal.

Newcastle's Recent Performance

Newcastle has won seven of their last nine Premier League games but hasn't won either of their last two away fixtures. They defeated Chelsea 2-0 recently, moving closer to Champions League qualification. Newcastle hasn't lost their final away league game in six seasons, with four wins and two draws since a loss to Tottenham in 2017-18.

Alexander Isak has been pivotal for Newcastle this season, scoring 23 goals—second only to Mohamed Salah's 28 goals. Isak scores every 116 minutes on average. Newcastle's attacking prowess is evident with their tally of 68 goals and a shot conversion rate of 13.8%, trailing only Liverpool and Brentford respectively.

Key Players to Watch

Arsenal - William Saliba: Saliba has been vital for Arsenal's defence this season, contributing to their league-low concession of goals and expected goals against (xGA). He could make his 100th Premier League appearance in this match and potentially equal the most wins by an Arsenal player in their first 100 games.

Newcastle United - Jacob Murphy: Murphy has formed an effective partnership with Isak, providing 12 assists this season. Only Andrew Cole and Nolberto Solano have more assists for Newcastle in a single campaign than Murphy.

The Opta supercomputer predicts that Arsenal still has a strong chance (78.1%) to finish second despite recent setbacks. Meanwhile, Newcastle is less likely to finish second according to simulations (19.2%), with higher chances of finishing fourth or third at 33.1% and 30.8%, respectively.