Atletico Madrid Chief Diego Simeone Says Home Advantage Won't Decide Barcelona Second Leg

Diego Simeone played down any idea that Atletico Madrid’s home crowd would secure progress against Barcelona, even though Atletico hold a 2-0 advantage going into the Champions League quarter-final second leg at the Metropolitano on Tuesday and are chasing a first semi-final appearance since the 2016-17 season.

The first leg at Camp Nou turned when Barcelona defender Pau Cubarsi received a red card, and Atletico then struck through a Julian Alvarez free-kick and a 70th-minute finish from Alexander Sorloth, giving Simeone’s side a strong position but not, in Simeone’s view, a reason to relax.

This will already be the sixth Atletico Madrid vs Barcelona Champions League and domestic clash of the current campaign, matching the total number of meetings from the 2013-14 season, while only 1985-86 brought more duels between the clubs, with eight games that year in all competitions.

Simeone’s team control this season’s head-to-head record, having beaten Barcelona 2-0 in the first leg and 4-0 in the Copa del Rey, which means Atletico can claim three victories over Barcelona in one campaign for the first time since the 1995-96 season if they win again at the Metropolitano.

Atletico’s stadium has usually brought strong results in Europe, with five wins from six home matches in this Champions League campaign, one defeat, and a competition-high tally of 20 home goals, yet recent history against Hansi Flick’s Barcelona at the Metropolitano is more mixed.

Since the beginning of last season, half of Atletico’s losses at home in all competitions, three from six, have come against Barcelona under Flick, and Barcelona are the only visiting team to claim more than one away win at the ground in that time, underlining the threat that Simeone expects.

Simeone reminded reporters that plans mean little once the game starts, saying: "The match, whatever we imagine, is onlyin our heads for now until the game starts, and obviously, everything we've said is left behind,Because if we think we're going to apply pressure just because we're playing at home, and they play better, it doesn't happen."

Simeone pointed to Atletico’s control early in the first leg as the standard for the return, explaining: "The other day [Wednesday], in the first 20 minutes, we had good ball movement. They couldn't take the ball away from us, and we spent more time in their half, playing better than anyone imagined at the start of the match. So, we must keep faith, hoping the team can keep responding the way it is, and have confidence in what we want."

Atletico Madrid vs Barcelona Champions League odds and expectations

Data from the Opta supercomputer favours Atletico strongly before the Atletico Madrid vs Barcelona Champions League showdown, calculating an 80% chance that Simeone’s side advance to the semi-finals and a 20% probability for Barcelona to overturn the deficit and reach the last four instead.

Across Opta’s tournament simulations, Atletico are projected to win the Champions League in 9% of scenarios, with that probability shaped by the away victory at Camp Nou and by Atletico’s consistent scoring form at the Metropolitano in this season’s competition.

Asked whether Atletico would focus on defending the two-goal lead during the Atletico Madrid vs Barcelona Champions League decider, Simeone replied: "We're confident about what we need, and we're confident about what we're going to go for. Our goal is to progress, and we'll play the match to make that happen," outlining an approach based on clear intent rather than pure caution.