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Benfica vs Real Madrid Prediction: Who will Win the Champions League Playoffs, Predicted Lineups

The Champions League anthem will roar tonight inside the Estadio da Luz, but for Real Madrid, this is no ordinary European night. It is a rescue mission.

Just three weeks ago, Benfica shocked the football world by beating Real Madrid 4-2 in the final game of the league phase by tearing apart the Spanish champions, sealed by a stoppage-time goal from Benfica goalkeeper Anatoliy Trubin. This result pushed Real Madrid down to 9th place, forcing them into this extra playoff round.

Benfica vs Real Madrid

Now, under interim coach Alvaro Arbeloa, Real Madrid returns to the "Stadium of Light" looking to prove that the previous loss was a fluke. However, they face a Benfica side managed by none other than Jose Mourinho, who has turned the Estádio da Luz into a fortress, would love nothing more than to eliminate his former club

The atmosphere will be hostile. The Benfica faithful, known for creating the "Inferno," will sense blood. They know Real Madrid is vulnerable. For the Spanish giants, handling this psychological pressure is just as crucial as the tactical plan. If they concede early, the ghosts of the previous defeat could return to haunt them.

Predicted Lineups: Team News & Injuries

The Los Blancos are missing several heavyweights. Jude Bellingham (hamstring) and Eder Militao (tendon) are out. Rodrygo and Raul Asencio are suspended. The big news is Kylian Mbappe, who missed the weekend league game with a knee issue but is expected to start today even if not 100% fit.

The hosts are missing Fredrik Aursnes and Samuel Soares due to muscle injuries. However, their star striker Vangelis Pavlidis, who has 28 goals this season, is fully fit and ready to lead the line.

Real Madrid Predicted XI (4-4-2): Courtois; Alexander-Arnold, Rudiger, Huijsen, Alvaro Carreras; Valverde, Tchouameni, Camavinga, Arda Güler; Vinícius Junior, Mbappe.

Benfica Predicted XI (4-2-3-1): Trubin; Dedic, Antonio Silva, Otamendi, Dahl; Barreiro, Barrenechea; Prestianni, Sudakov, Schjelderup; Pavlidis.

On Head-to-Head basis, Benfica has won 3 out of their last 4 meetings with Real Madrid whereas Kylian Mbappe has a staggering 13 goals in 7 UCL matches this season, the best rate in the competition's history. Benfica has not lost a halftime lead at home in their last 19 matches at the Estádio da Luz with Vangelis Pavlidis just one goal away from becoming the second Benfica player ever to reach 10 goals in a single UCL campaign.

Benfica vs Real Madrid Match Prediction: Who Will Win?

Expect a tight contest where Madrid's individual quality shines through late in the game. While Benfica has the psychological edge from their 4-2 win in January, Real Madrid will likely play with more control this time with Trent Alexander-Arnold and Rudiger back in the squad.
Final Score Prediction: Benfica 1-2 Real Madrid

Story first published: Tuesday, February 17, 2026, 17:35 [IST]
Other articles published on Feb 17, 2026
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