Bournemouth head to the London Stadium as slight favourites, with OPTA data giving Andoni Iraola’s team a 43.7% chance of victory against West Ham’s 31.1%, and a draw rated at 25.2%. Bournemouth are unbeaten in six league matches, sitting ninth and targeting European spots, while West Ham still fight to move clear of relegation danger.
The Cherries’ strong Premier League run in 2026 includes four wins and two draws, the joint-highest number of league victories this calendar year. That surge has lifted Bournemouth to within five points of the European positions, with 12 fixtures remaining, giving the club realistic hopes of stretching this push into the final weeks of the season.

Bournemouth’s first top-flight win came away at West Ham in August 2015, yet that venue has since proved awkward. Across the seven subsequent league visits, Bournemouth have managed one win, three draws and three defeats. However, the current momentum under Andoni Iraola offers a different backdrop compared with many of those earlier meetings.
Ryan Christie believes this progress has changed the squad’s mindset. The midfielder reflected on Bournemouth’s rise during recent seasons and suggested the team now feels far more comfortable at Premier League level, both in performances and results, as the club attempts to push higher during the closing stretch of the campaign.
"I feel a bit more calm and relaxed in the league and, as a team, we feel like we belong with how well weve done over the past couple of seasons," said the Scotland international. "Its nice to look back on games and realise how far weve come in such a short space of time. If we can keep pushing the club on the trajectory its on, we dont really have a roof right now, which is a pretty cool feeling."
Nineteen-year-old Rayan has made an instant impact since arriving in the Premier League. The Bournemouth forward has contributed to a goal in every league match so far, scoring twice and providing one assist in three appearances. No teenager has ever recorded goal contributions in each of their first four Premier League games.
West Ham’s attacking focus has recently centred on Crysencio Summerville. The forward has found the net six times in the last seven games across all competitions, matching the total from the previous 56 appearances for West Ham and Leeds United. This year, only Jarrod Bowen, with eight goals, has scored more for the Hammers.
West Ham approach the fixture with renewed belief, having lost once in the last five league games, collecting three wins and a draw. A late equaliser conceded against Manchester United slowed their climb, but that setback was followed by an FA Cup victory over Burton Albion, keeping confidence intact ahead of Bournemouth’s visit.
January arrival Adama Traore has highlighted the unity within the West Ham group and the bond with supporters. The winger described a strong atmosphere around the squad and expressed determination to help the club meet its targets, while also stressing that individual displays will keep improving with more minutes and better match sharpness.
"We have a very good team, and there are very good people both inside and outside of the pitch," said Adama. "Im really happy to be here, to be back with the manager, and also to work with great individuals. Were working hard, and I hope were able to keep showing this connection on the pitch. The fans here are amazing too, and the way they sing is so passionate. I said when I signed about how I used to follow the fans when I was younger, and the way they are resonates with me, because Im passionate also. For me, Im trying to achieve the teams objectives, and Im really pleased to have been out there from the start. Its good for my form and fitness, Im feeling better with every game, and I just want to keep pushing forwards."
Recent meetings between these sides have been tight. West Ham are unbeaten in the last nine Premier League clashes with Bournemouth, registering three wins and six draws since a 2-0 defeat in January 2019. Each of the previous five league encounters has finished level, underlining how often the points have been shared.
That sequence of draws places this fixture alongside some of the most frequently repeated stalemates in Premier League history. Only three matchups have seen six or more consecutive draws: Birmingham versus Liverpool, Aston Villa versus West Ham, and Brighton versus West Ham, highlighting the Hammers’ regular presence in such long sequences.
Both teams have also struggled to protect leads this season. West Ham have dropped 20 points from winning positions, more than any other side in the division. Bournemouth are not far behind, losing 18 points after taking the lead. For West Ham, only the seasons 2019-20, 2010-11, 2016-17 and 2023-24 saw larger totals.
{TABLE_1}
| Outcome | OPTA win probability |
|---|---|
| West Ham win | 31.1% |
| Draw | 25.2% |
| Bournemouth win | 43.7% |
Analysts still lean towards a Bournemouth win, reflecting recent form and attacking rhythm. West Ham’s improved performances and strong home support suggest a competitive contest, but Bournemouth’s six-match unbeaten league run, Christie's confident outlook and Rayan’s early impact combine to give Iraola’s team a narrow statistical edge before kick-off.