Can Ruben Amorim Complete Pep Guardiola's Three-Peat In The Manchester Derby This Weekend?

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The 2024-25 season has been challenging for both Manchester clubs. Despite this, the 196th derby between them remains a highlight. In December, Amad Diallo became a hero for Manchester United by scoring a last-minute goal, securing a 2-1 victory over Manchester City. This win marked Ruben Amorim's first major success since taking charge at Old Trafford.

United's performance has been inconsistent since that memorable day at Etihad Stadium. They recently suffered their 13th Premier League defeat of the season against Nottingham Forest, just one short of their record of 14 losses in a single campaign. Currently, they are positioned 13th in the league standings.

Ruben Amorim is still adapting to his role as United's manager, facing challenges on both ends of the pitch. United have conceded the opening goal in 23 matches this season, only Leicester has more with 26. Their conversion rate stands at 9.14%, ranking third-worst in the league.

City's recent away form has been less than ideal, losing six of their last 11 away matches in the Premier League. This is as many defeats as they had in their previous 37 away games combined. Despite these struggles, City have enjoyed success at Old Trafford, winning nine Premier League away games against United.

Pep Guardiola's team comes into this match with confidence after defeating Leicester City 2-0 midweek. Goals from Jack Grealish and Omar Marmoush helped secure their place in the top four. However, City's average goals per game this season is their lowest under Guardiola at 1.9.

Key Players to Watch

Bruno Fernandes remains crucial for Manchester United, having contributed to 21 goals at Old Trafford this season across all competitions. If he assists in this match, it will be his third season achieving both 10+ goals and assists at home since joining the club.

For Manchester City, Omar Marmoush is expected to lead the attack in Erling Haaland's absence. Marmoush scored his fifth Premier League goal against Leicester but aims to break his scoring drought away from home against United.

Historical Context and Predictions

The Red Devils have not lost any of their last three encounters with City across all competitions (W2 D1). They aim to complete their first Premier League double over Guardiola’s side since the 2019-20 season following their December victory.

The Opta supercomputer favours City for Sunday's clash with a win probability of 43.8%. United’s chances stand at 30.7%, while a draw is predicted at 25.4%. The away team has often triumphed in recent derbies, winning ten out of the last eighteen meetings.

This fixture also presents an opportunity for Ruben Amorim to achieve a rare feat against Pep Guardiola by becoming only the third manager to beat him three times consecutively if successful on Sunday.