Champions League Clash: Mourinho Wary Of Wounded Real Madrid Ahead Of Reunion

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Benfica and Real Madrid meet at Estadio da Luz on Tuesday in a Champions League play-off first leg, with Jose Mourinho warning that the visitors arrive hurt and dangerous after their recent defeat in Lisbon, even as data models still make Alvaro Arbeloa’s side favourites to progress overall.

The Opta supercomputer rates Madrid as more likely winners on the night, assigning them a 49% chance of victory in its simulations. Benfica are given a 27.2% likelihood of winning the first leg, while the remaining probability covers a draw that would send the tie to Spain delicately balanced.

Mourinho stressed that emotional factors still matter, especially after January’s dramatic meeting. "They are wounded. And a wounded king is dangerous, said former Madrid coach Mourinho. We will play the first leg with our heads, ambition and confidence. We know what we did to the kings of the Champions League."

The coach accepts that Madrid’s response will be intense, as that earlier defeat dropped the Spanish side from third to ninth in LaLiga. Mourinho now wants Benfica to handle the pressure of favourites Madrid, while using the memory of that wild finish at Estadio da Luz to fuel belief rather than anxiety.

Benfica’s recent record in the Champions League against Madrid is strong, with three wins from four meetings in the competition, and one defeat. However, results against Spanish opposition overall have been less positive, with just two victories in the last eight Champions League matches against LaLiga sides, alongside one draw and five losses.

Those two recent wins over Spanish clubs both came in Lisbon with exactly four goals scored by Benfica. They beat Atletico Madrid 4-0 in October 2024 and defeated Real Madrid 4-2 in January. Benfica have also won their last two Champions League home matches, something achieved previously in this competition’s format only in 1994-95.

The qualification play-off place was secured in extraordinary circumstances at Estadio da Luz just 16 days earlier. Kylian Mbappe had opened the scoring before Andreas Schjelderup and Vangelis Pavlidis both converted, turning the game around. Schjelderup then added another, Mbappe replied with a second, and stoppage time saw Raul Asencio and Rodrygo both sent off.

Benfica still needed one goal to reach the play-offs when 98 minutes had passed. Goalkeeper Anatoliy Trubin went forward for a late set piece and scored with a header, sending the stadium into shock. That made Trubin the fifth goalkeeper to score in the Champions League, after Jorg Butt, Sinan Bolat, Vincent Enyeama and Ivan Provedel.

Mourinho argued that the outsiders’ tag suits Benfica. "I don’t think it takes a miracle for Benfica to eliminate Real Madrid. I think Benfica needs to be at the highest level, Mourinho added. I don’t even say high, I mean maximum, almost bordering on perfection, which does not exist. But not a miracle."

The Benfica boss also underlined the scale of the task. "Obviously, Real Madrid is Real Madrid, Real Madrid players are Real Madrid players: history, knowledge, ambition. The only comparable thing is that they are two giant clubs. Beyond that, there is nothing else. But football has this power, and we can win."