England World Cup 2026 Favourites, Tuchel Says Dream Big But Not Top Favourites

Thomas Tuchel has warned that England should not be labelled World Cup favourites, despite growing expectations and strong data models. The England head coach stressed that a six-decade wait for a global title means others carry stronger claims, even as the squad prepares for another major tournament challenge in North America.

Analytical projections still place England among the leading contenders. The Opta supercomputer gives England an 11% chance of lifting the World Cup, behind only Spain on 16% and France on 13%. England open Group L against Croatia on 17 June at Dallas Stadium, beginning what will be a 17th appearance at the finals.

Tuchel underlined that history matters when discussing leading contenders and rejected the idea that England sit at the front of the queue. "How many favourites are there?, Tuchel told reporters.No, we're not the top favourites. We can't be because we haven't won it for so many years. There are proven winners in the tournament with more success. We compete, we dream big, and we know what it takes. Responsibility is on the effort and that is where the focus is. We see ourselves as challengers. We want to go all the way, but I don't think we are theheavy favourites."

When pressed on which nations should be considered ahead of England, Tuchel pointed toward the quality and recent success of Portugal. "After their success in the Nations League and the involvement of theplayers in Paris Saint-Germain's Champions League win, they are one of the favourites, Tuchel added. They have a strong football team. A strong coach and strong players." Tuchel noted that club achievements in the 2025-26 season strengthened Portugal’s credentials.

England’s standing is shaped by a long record of near-misses at major tournaments. The only World Cup triumph came in 1966 on home soil, while semi-final runs followed in 1990 and in Russia eight years ago. At the European Championships, England lost back-to-back finals, falling to Italy in 2020 and Spain four years later.

For Tuchel, those recent deep runs at tournaments still provide valuable experience and belief within the group. "It's absolutely relevant. If you get to two Euros finals, and reach the semi-finals and quarter-finals of the World Cup, then you are therethen you can win it, Tuchel said. Then maybe it just takes a bit of luck or whatever. I strongly believe we are there, but I also believe we are not the favourites because of history. We know what it takes, and it also requires a calm mindset and focus on our steps. If we want to reach the top of the mountain, we need to start the journey step by step. Otherwise, well get distracted. I have belief. We all have beliefs and a dream. But it comes with hard work, responsibility, commitment and disciplineand sometimes disappointment. That's all part of it. But we dare to dream, and thats important."

Tuchel’s comments come as data continues to highlight a small core of teams expected to challenge. The distribution of Opta’s winning probabilities underlines how tightly grouped the main contenders are ahead of the tournament.

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England World Cup favourites, preparations and fitness

On the pitch, England have already started fine-tuning for the World Cup with a tight 1-0 victory over New Zealand. Harry Kane scored the decisive goal at Raymond James Stadium in Florida. Historically, England rarely lose their final pre-World Cup game, with just one defeat across 16 previous tournaments, alongside nine wins and six draws.

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The last warm-up fixture comes against Costa Rica on Wednesday, their first meeting since a 2-0 England win in June 2018. Preparation work has continued in Florida, where the full squad trained together before that match.

The session highlighted that all 31 players are currently involved in training.

Tuchel reported a clean bill of health within the squad and explained how minutes will be shared in the final friendly and an additional behind-closed-doors game. "No-one needs a break, everyone is available, which is very good news,Tuchel said of the fitness of the squad. No [injury] complaints after the first match. We are ready to give it a push tomorrow, meaning more than 45 minutes. Players will play 60, maybe 70 minutes. Then, we have a chance to load the players a day later in a match behind closed doors in our training facility, then pre-camp is finished. We then start our adventure two days later in Kansas. We expect a physical push tomorrow. Physically, [with] intensity and style and play. We want to take the next step."

England now move from pre-camp work in Florida towards Kansas, before travelling on to Dallas for the Croatia opener. Tuchel’s side enter the World Cup as serious contenders but not, in the coach’s view, top favourites. The target remains clear: use past experiences, current fitness and detailed preparation to challenge stronger historical winners for the title.