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Napoli visit Cremonese on Sunday with confidence high after lifting the Supercoppa Italiana, yet recent away struggles keep this Serie A trip finely balanced. Opta rates Napoli as strong favourites, but Cremonese chase a landmark home run, while individual storylines around Rasmus Hojlund, Romelu Lukaku and Jamie Vardy add extra interest for supporters.

According to Opta’s model, Napoli hold a 58.5% chance of victory, compared with 18.2% for Cremonese and a 23.2% probability of a draw. Napoli have dominated this Serie A fixture historically, losing only two of 16 league meetings while winning eight. That record includes a 4-1 victory at Stadio Giovanni Zini in October 2022.

Napoli arrive from a successful Supercoppa Italiana campaign, having beaten AC Milan in the semi-final before overcoming Bologna 2-0 in Monday’s final. That triumph delivered the club’s third Supercoppa Italiana title, and their second secured in normal time after the 1990 win, when Antonio Careca scored twice in a 5-1 victory against Juventus.

On the Napoli side, David Neres has become crucial since October. Neres was slow to start the campaign but is now the only Serie A player involved in 10 goals in all competitions from that point, with six goals and four assists. The winger scored against Milan in the Supercoppa Italiana semi-final and hit two goals in the final against Bologna.

Napoli Serie A win probability and match outlook

The statistical outlook still leans towards Napoli, despite their away issues and Cremonese’s recent home success. Napoli’s deeper squad, attacking options in Hojlund, Lukaku and Neres, and their superior head-to-head Serie A record shape expectations that Conte’s side can manage the occasion and sustain the momentum gained from the Supercoppa Italiana triumph.

Both teams enter this Serie A meeting with clear targets; Cremonese chase a historic home sequence and Vardy’s milestone, while Napoli seek to turn Supercoppa Italiana success into stronger away form. With Opta numbers, recent history and individual narratives aligned, a Napoli win appears most likely, though Cremonese still present a serious test.