Inter Tipped To Win Serie A 2025-26, Says Pazzini With Opta Probability

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Giampaolo Pazzini is convinced the Scudetto race is settled, backing Cristian Chivu’s Inter to secure the 2025-26 Serie A title despite a recent setback against AC Milan and a tricky home clash with in-form Atalanta, with Opta’s projection and Inter’s position in the table heavily favouring the Nerazzurri.

Inter sit seven points ahead of second-place Milan going into the Atalanta meeting on Saturday, and Opta’s supercomputer gives Chivu’s team a 92.2% chance of finishing champions, with Milan’s title hopes rated at 6.7%, underlining why Pazzini views the situation as almost decided at this stage.

Pazzini, who played for Inter between 2010 and 2012 before spending three seasons at Milan, bases this view on both statistics and experience, stressing that overturning such a gap is rare when the leaders are not distracted by Champions League duties and have already shown strong consistency across the domestic campaign.

Reflecting on the latest derby defeat, Pazzini highlighted both Chivu’s errors and Milan’s work under Massimiliano Allegri. "There's no doubt that Chivu messed up that game; he admitted it himself in the press conference. But I also have to congratulate Milan. Allegri manages to prepare for matches perfectly. It's no coincidence that they won both derbies."

Pazzini believes that, even after losing to Milan, the bigger picture still favours Inter, especially given their response earlier this season. Inter's previous defeat before this derby also came against Milan, after which Chivu’s side produced a strong sequence of 14 wins and one draw in Serie A.

The former striker therefore sees little room for a twist in the title race. "I think the Scudetto issue is over, because to make up seven points on Inter, who aren't playing in the Champions League, something truly unexpected would have to happen." Pazzini shared this view while speaking to Aura Sport about the situation.

Inter’s recent form, however, has dipped compared with earlier in the season. Across the last six matches in all competitions, Chivu’s team have suffered three defeats, along with two wins and one draw, matching the total losses from their previous 20 games, where they recorded 15 victories, two draws and only three defeats.

The attack has also stalled. Inter failed to score in their last two outings, against Como in the Coppa Italia and Milan in Serie A. That is as many scoreless matches as in their previous 40 fixtures this season, excluding Club World Cup games, raising questions before a demanding league encounter with Atalanta.

Atalanta arrive as one of Serie A’s most productive sides since Raffaele Palladino took charge on November 11. From that date, Atalanta have collected 33 points from 17 league matches, a haul matched only by Como and bettered solely by Inter with 43 points, Milan with 38 and Napoli with 34 over the same period.

The visitors’ confidence, though, took a heavy blow in Europe. Atalanta lost 6-1 to Bayern Munich in the Champions League during the week, a result that may influence Palladino’s approach at San Siro but also underlines how different their domestic and continental performances have been in recent months.

Inter, Serie A key players to watch

Piotr Zielinski is expected to be central for Inter against Atalanta. The midfielder born in 1994 has already scored three Serie A goals versus Atalanta and has a better personal record only against Juventus, Milan and Udinese, with four goals against each. Zielinski also leads Serie A players with three goals from outside the box in 2026.

Gianluca Scamacca is Atalanta’s main attacking reference, but recent numbers highlight a clear pattern. All of Scamacca’s last nine goals for Atalanta in all competitions have come at home. The striker last scored away in December against Verona in Serie A and has gone seven consecutive away appearances without a goal since then.

Inter, Serie A history and match prediction

Historical data strongly favours Inter in this fixture. Inter have won their last seven Serie A matches against Atalanta by a combined score of 19-5. The Milan side have previously enjoyed an eight-game league winning run against La Dea only once, achieved between 1964 and 1967 under manager Helenio Herrera.

Inter are unbeaten in 14 consecutive Serie A games against Atalanta, with nine wins and five draws. Atalanta’s most recent league victory over Inter dates back to November 2018, a 4-1 success in Bergamo. At San Siro, Atalanta have not taken three Serie A points since March 2014, when Giacomo Bonaventura scored twice in a 2-1 win.

Since that 2014 upset at San Siro, the Nerazzurri have dominated Atalanta at home in Serie A, taking eight wins from 11 home league meetings and drawing the other three. However, Inter’s current league campaign does show some vulnerability, with five defeats from 28 matches, matching the total losses recorded across all 38 games last season.

OPTA’s model still backs Inter strongly for this match and the wider title battle. The projected win probability for this fixture gives Inter 59.8 per cent, a draw 21.2 per cent and Atalanta 19 per cent, figures that reflect both Inter’s historical edge in this pairing and Atalanta’s competitive form under Palladino.

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Inter’s meeting with Atalanta therefore serves as both a test of recovery after the derby defeat and another step towards confirming the Scudetto. With Pazzini confident, Opta numbers favourable and key players like Zielinski and Scamacca under focus, the match at San Siro links short-term form with the broader Serie A title narrative.