Leeds United Pressure Remains Low As Premier League Run-In Begins Against Crystal Palace

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Leeds United visit Crystal Palace with both clubs balancing survival concerns and European hopes in a tight Premier League table. Leeds sit 15th with 31 points, only three clear of 18th-placed West Ham, while Palace are two positions higher and six points off seventh, giving this match at Selhurst Park clear importance at both ends.

Recent form for Leeds has dipped after a strong spell in December and early January, with just one win from seven league games, drawing three and losing three. However, Leeds have also reached the FA Cup quarter-finals after defeating Norwich City, and Daniel Farke stresses that cup progress does not distract from league priorities.

Farke underlined that expectations around the club remain constant despite the table tightening around Leeds. "If you represent Leeds United, you always have pressure, he said. We are used to playing under pressure, winning points in each game. We know where we are in terms of what we want to achieve. We know the job is not done. Seven to nine more points are needed to stay in this league. We know, in order to do this, there is still work needed, good performances needed. We are focused like always."

Crystal Palace enter the fixture believing they can still challenge for European qualification if they stabilise their league form. Oliver Glasner’s team have alternated between wins and defeats across their last five Premier League matches and remain six points behind seventh place, staying within reach of the European spots with a strong run.

Palace beat Tottenham 3-1 in their most recent league outing, but preparation for Leeds also includes European commitments. Glasner’s side drew 0-0 against AEK Larnaca in the first leg of their Europa Conference League last-16 tie, leaving the matchup finely balanced. Glasner remains clear about Palace’s approach, stating: "We will try to get as many points as possible, he said. I always want more than the season before. If we can achieve it, I don't know right now, but we will definitely go into every single game to get the win."

Leeds’ mindset appears shaped by the tight relegation picture, with Farke estimating that seven to nine additional points should be enough for safety. That calculation adds weight to matches like this one, particularly as other results could move Leeds closer to the bottom three by the end of the weekend, depending on West Ham’s performance.

Palace will hope Jorgen Strand Larsen continues a strong start since moving from Wolves. At Wolves, Jorgen Strand Larsen scored once in 22 league appearances, converting 4.8 per cent of 21 shots and averaging a goal every 1,405 minutes. With Palace, Jorgen Strand Larsen has three goals from 11 attempts, a 27.3 per cent conversion rate, and scores on average every 136 minutes.

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Crystal Palace vs Leeds United: key players and attacking threats

Leeds may again look to Dominic Calvert-Lewin, fitness permitting, given a strong record against Palace. Dominic Calvert-Lewin has scored more Premier League goals against Crystal Palace than any other opponent, with seven in total. That tally includes two goals during Leeds’ 4-1 win in the reverse fixture, although Dominic Calvert-Lewin is a doubt for Sunday’s match and Farke is cautiously hopeful.

Historical trends at Selhurst Park favour Palace, who are unbeaten in seven home league games against Leeds, winning four and drawing three since a 2-1 Championship defeat in March 2006. However, Leeds’ 4-1 victory at Elland Road in December offers confidence as they seek a first league double over Palace since the 1994-95 season.

Recent results against promoted clubs may also concern Palace. Glasner’s side have lost three straight league games against promoted opponents, a run that began with December’s defeat at Elland Road. The last promoted club to complete a league double over Palace was Sheffield United in the 2019-20 Premier League campaign.

Palace’s overall league form has picked up, with three wins and two defeats from their last five matches, matching the number of victories from their previous 14 Premier League fixtures, which included four draws and seven losses. Leeds, by contrast, are winless in 11 consecutive league away games against London clubs, drawing two and losing nine, though they did fight back from 2-0 down to draw 2-2 at Chelsea on their latest visit.

Crystal Palace vs Leeds United: Opta prediction and win probability

OPTA’s model leans towards a home success at Selhurst Park, listing Crystal Palace as favourites for this meeting. Palace’s recent home record against Leeds, combined with Leeds’ struggles in London, supports that outlook, though Leeds’ December win and strong display at Chelsea indicate potential for another competitive away performance.

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Crystal Palace are given a 47.7 per cent chance of victory by OPTA, with the draw rated at 26.1 per cent and Leeds at 26.2 per cent. These figures reflect Palace’s strong home record in this fixture and Leeds’ recent away difficulties, while also acknowledging that Farke’s side have shown resilience in similar high-pressure matches this season.