Man City Hopeful To Overturn Real Madrid In Champions League Last-16

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Manchester City approach the second leg against Real Madrid needing a major comeback, yet Pep Guardiola remains confident the Champions League last-16 tie is still alive despite a 3-0 deficit and past struggles in overturning first-leg losses at this stage of the competition.

The damage in Madrid came from Federico Valverde, whose first-half hat-trick left City facing a four-goal swing to reach the quarter-finals. Real Madrid also welcome back Kylian Mbappe and Jude Bellingham for the return match at the Etihad Stadium after both missed the first leg through injury.

Guardiola is aware of the scale of the challenge, particularly as City produced only eight shots and 0.6 expected goals in the first game, both their lowest Champions League figures this season, but still believes the squad can respond when it matters on home ground.

City have not progressed from a Champions League knockout tie after losing the first leg since the 2014-15 quarter-finals, when Bayern Munich overturned Porto to win 7-4 on aggregate, and Guardiola has fallen in each of the five such situations since then, including all three with Manchester City.

The coach could also miss the last eight for a second straight season, having been eliminated by Real Madrid in the 2024-25 play-offs, a contrast to Guardiola’s earlier years as a manager, when elimination before the quarter-finals happened only once in his first 15 campaigns, in 2016-17 with City.

Despite that record, Guardiola gave his players a day off on Monday to clear minds before the Real Madrid test and underlined the need to approach the second leg with freedom rather than fear, focusing first on winning the match rather than obsessing about the total margin needed.

Guardiola set out his simple message for Manchester City. "It's a football game, many things can happen," he said. "You have to focus and first try to win the game, then after that, we will see what happens during the game. I don't have a specific plan. Just try it."

Manchester City vs Real Madrid Champions League belief, tactics and probabilities

Asked whether the squad still believe they can overturn Real Madrid in the Champions League, Guardiola replied: "After 10 years, you have to convince some of my players about their beliefs? They know me quite well. Every single game we try. This will be no exception. They have to. I am pretty sure they will try it."

Guardiola noted that many current Manchester City players are new to such high-stakes situations, saying the group has changed from the side that stayed together for several seasons, yet sees the Real Madrid tie as both "an incredible experience and an incredible opportunity to try it" on a major Champions League stage.

Reflecting on the first leg, Guardiola said the key against Real Madrid will be execution in decisive areas, admitting City used four or five forwards in Spain without scoring and stressing that the second leg demands "the perfect game in many senses" in the Champions League.

"It is about the players, putting it [the ball] into perfect positions," Guardiola added. "We played with four or five strikers in the first leg and didn't score a goal. We need the perfect game in many senses. In the bad moments, we know what can happen even in a perfect game in 93 or 94 minutes.

"We just have to try, don't give up. We can create chances, we know that. If we are able to be clinical and especially defend well, then we will be in the game."

Data from the Opta supercomputer still rates Manchester City as favourites to win the second leg against Real Madrid, giving the hosts victory in 58.5% of simulations, although that edge relates only to the single match, as City must still overturn the three-goal Champions League deficit.

Captain Bernardo Silva echoed Guardiola’s belief that the Champions League tie with Real Madrid is not over, saying: "Even though the result in Madrid was really bad, we will fight until the end. It will be tough. At our home, anything can happen. No matter what, it can still happen. We know in football and with our team at home, we are capable of creating a lot of chances."

Manchester City now rely on a strong performance at the Etihad against Real Madrid in the Champions League, needing clinical finishing, disciplined defending and full conviction from a refreshed squad if they are to extend their European campaign beyond the last-16 stage.