Morgan Rogers Shines At Aston Villa As Carrick Expresses Surprise At Rapid Rise

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Michael Carrick is preparing to face Morgan Rogers for the first time since the midfielder’s move to Aston Villa, and has admitted being taken aback by the speed of Rogers’ rise before the Premier League meeting with Manchester United at Old Trafford.

Rogers arrives as one of Villa’s main threats, having scored twice in the reverse league fixture in December to give Unai Emery’s side a 2-1 victory over Ruben Amorim’s United, while both teams now sit level on 51 points in the table.

Carrick previously worked with Rogers at Middlesbrough and oversaw key stages of the midfielder’s development before the reported £15m transfer to Villa in February 2024, and Carrick now watches the 23-year-old excel for club and country with a mixture of pride and surprise.

Reflecting on that journey, Carrick told reporters: "It is fantastic for him to see Morgan going on to do so well and for a good period of time, He had the initial signing in January, and I wasn't really sure how it was going to go. It was a big step for him. He hadn't played for an awful long time at Middlesbrough, so I felt he could have done with a little bit more. But as soon as he went to Aston Villa, he took huge steps and became a major, major part of their team and part of the England team, so that is how well he has done."

Rogers’ impact at Villa is clear in the numbers, with 27 goals and 21 assists from 111 appearances in all competitions, a return that brings the midfielder Villa’s player of the year award for 2024-25 and 12 England caps, with a place in the World Cup squad now looking likely.

Despite that strong record, Rogers is searching for renewed productivity after four straight league matches without a goal or assist, and Villa may rely heavily on Rogers again at Old Trafford if they are to gain the points needed to finally complete a league double over United for the first time since the 1954-55 season.

Rogers also stands out statistically for his work under pressure; among 150 Premier League players with over 1,000 touches this season heading into the weekend, 83.7% of Rogers’ 1,422 touches, or 1,190 actions, occur while opponents apply direct pressure in possession.

Manchester United vs Aston Villa: Emery’s assessment of the challenge

Emery underlines how much is at stake, with Villa sitting fourth on goal difference behind third-placed United, and both clubs still competing in two different tournaments as the season heads into its final stretch with several league fixtures still available.

Emery said: "We are going to face Manchester United on Sunday, and they are now feeling confident, They're strong at home, theyplay good football and they have very good players. It's a really huge challenge on Sunday, But analysing how we are in the table overall, we are fourth with the same points as Manchester United with 51, and they are third. Sunday is day 30 and there are still points to play for, a lot of points to play for. There are still matches to play, and we are so, so motivated in the two competitions we are fighting in."

Manchester United vs Aston Villa key players and stats

United’s captain Bruno Fernandes again appears central, with his goals and assists worth 23 league points so far this campaign, a tally bettered in the club’s Premier League history only by Robin van Persie’s 38-point contribution in 2012-13, Eric Cantona’s 26 in 1993-94 and Cristiano Ronaldo’s 25 in 2007-08.

United’s wider record against Villa at Old Trafford is strong, as they have lost only two of the last 37 home league meetings, winning 28 and drawing seven, with both defeats coming 1-0 in December 2009 and September 2021, while their 30 Premier League clean sheets against Villa trail only Arsenal’s 31 clean sheets against Newcastle United.

Recent form further underlines the hosts’ status as favourites, with United losing three of the opening six league fixtures this season but then suffering defeat only three times in 23 subsequent top-flight matches, recording 13 wins and seven draws before the latest 2-1 loss to 10-man Newcastle United.

Villa’s recent league run is less consistent, with just three wins from 11 Premier League games, alongside three draws and five defeats since the 4-1 loss against Arsenal on 30 December, a stretch in which only four teams in the division collect fewer than Villa’s 12 points.

Injuries to key midfielders have played a part, as Villa manage only one win, two draws and three defeats from six league games when neither Boubacar Kamara, John McGinn nor Youri Tielemans start, earning an average of 0.8 points per match across those fixtures.

Manchester United vs Aston Villa probabilities and outlook

Analytical models give United a 46.3% chance of victory, a draw a 26.6% likelihood and Villa a 27.1% probability, figures that reflect United’s dominance in the fixture, Villa’s chance to complete a long-awaited league double and the individual duel between Fernandes and Rogers that may shape the outcome at Old Trafford.