Premier League 2025-26: Arsenal to Manchester United - Who have the Easiest and Toughest starts to the Season?

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As anticipation builds for the Premier League 2025-26 season, the opening fixtures are already generating plenty of discussion. The first five matches can be crucial in shaping early momentum, whether a team is chasing the title or trying to avoid the drop.

According to the Opta Opponent Average Rating model, which calculates the strength of each club’s first five opponents based on predictive performance data, some clubs face an uphill battle right from kickoff, while others have the opportunity to start strong.

This article examines the three toughest and three easiest starts to the 2025-26 Premier League season based on these ratings, considering the first five matches.

Toughest Starts in the Premier League 2025-26

1. Manchester United – 94.6 Opponent Avg. Rating

Fixtures: Arsenal (H), Fulham (A), Burnley (H), Manchester City (A), Chelsea (H)

Manchester United face a brutal schedule in the opening weeks. Three of their first five fixtures are against fellow Big Six sides, including a high-stakes Manchester Derby away in Matchweek 4. Even the comparatively easier fixtures, Fulham and Burnley, pose significant threats, particularly away from home.

Key Takeaway: A season-defining run from the outset. United will need to be at full throttle immediately.

2. Arsenal – 94.0 Opponent Avg. Rating

Fixtures: Manchester United (A), Leeds United (H), Liverpool (A), Nottingham Forest (H), Manchester City (H)

Arsenal’s campaign kicks off with clashes against Manchester United, Liverpool, and Manchester City in the first five rounds. The home games against Leeds and Forest offer brief relief, but this remains an intense examination of their title credentials.

Key Takeaway: Arteta’s side must be efficient and composed as they’ll face three major contenders before the end of September.

3. Bournemouth – 93.7 Opponent Avg. Rating

Fixtures: Liverpool (A), West Ham (H), Tottenham (A), Brighton (H), Newcastle United (H)

Bournemouth's schedule is quietly brutal. Four of their five opponents are established top-half sides with aggressive styles. Away trips to Anfield and Tottenham sandwich home games that offer no respite.

Key Takeaway: Survival mode may be triggered early. Andoni Iraola's men must weather the storm before fixtures ease up.

Easiest Starts in the Premier League 2025-26

1. Aston Villa – 90.9 Opponent Avg. Rating

Fixtures: Newcastle United (A), Brentford (H), Crystal Palace (H), Everton (A), Sunderland (H)

Despite a tricky opener away at Newcastle, Aston Villa enjoy a favourable run thereafter. Three of their next four matches are at home against beatable opposition, offering a golden chance to build early momentum.

Key Takeaway: Unai Emery will be expected to collect strong early points for another top-four push.

2. Crystal Palace – 90.9 Opponent Avg. Rating

Fixtures: Chelsea (A), Nottingham Forest (H), Aston Villa (A), Sunderland (H), West Ham (A)

Crystal Palace start with a manageable fixture list. With games against two newly promoted sides and a transitional Chelsea, there is ample opportunity for a solid points haul.

Key Takeaway: Oliver Glasner's side can establish stability early and set a solid platform for the campaign.

3. West Ham United – 91.0 Opponent Avg. Rating

Fixtures: Sunderland (A), Chelsea (H), Nottingham Forest (A), Tottenham Hotspur (H), Crystal Palace (H)

While Spurs and Chelsea present challenges, West Ham enjoy three home games in the first five weeks and avoid last season’s title challengers. A favourable opportunity for a fresh start under new management.

Key Takeaway: Early fixtures offer a gentle runway for a new era at the London Stadium.

The 2025-26 Premier League season promises to be relentless from the outset. Manchester United, Arsenal, and Bournemouth face early tests of resilience, while Aston Villa, Crystal Palace, and West Ham will aim to capitalise on relatively softer starts.

Credit: Opta (Opponent Avg. Rating Model, 2025-26 Fixtures Analysis)