FA Cup Quarter-Final: Manchester City Set To Face Bournemouth For Wembley Spot

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A trip to Wembley Stadium is at stake as Bournemouth faces Manchester City in the FA Cup quarter-finals on Sunday. Few would have predicted City's current position, trailing in both the Premier League and Champions League by March. Currently fifth, they are far behind leaders Liverpool, making the FA Cup their only hope for a trophy this season. Despite being favourites, City will face a tough challenge at Vitality Stadium.

Bournemouth's season has been impressive, with a chance to reach Wembley adding to their achievements. Coach Andoni Iraola's future might be uncertain due to his success. The Cherries have already beaten City once this season and could do so again. They have scored eight goals in three FA Cup matches, with an expected goals (xG) of 8.94. Only City surpasses them in these metrics.

Bournemouth's recent form has dipped, losing three of their last four Premier League games and drawing one after leading 2-0 against Tottenham. This leaves them 10th but just four points behind City. Their first-ever FA Cup meeting with City follows a historic win against them earlier this season. In 21 previous encounters, City won 19 times, with two draws.

City's FA Cup journey under Pep Guardiola includes two wins in 2018-19 and 2022-23. They've won their last 14 away games in the competition, scoring 40 goals and conceding 10 since their last away defeat at Wigan Athletic in February 2018. Their recent quarter-final record is strong, winning seven consecutive ties.

Antoine Semenyo is crucial for Bournemouth, having scored against City earlier this season. He has taken 14 shots in the FA Cup, half during the fifth-round match against Wolves. With nine goals and five assists across all competitions, Semenyo is a significant threat.

Kevin De Bruyne stands out for Manchester City. He contributed a goal and an assist against Plymouth and has been involved in 13 goals over his last ten FA Cup appearances (three goals, ten assists). Since joining City in 2015, De Bruyne leads in FA Cup goal contributions with 28 (10 goals, 18 assists).

Historical Context and Predictions

This marks Bournemouth's third appearance in the FA Cup quarter-finals; they lost to Manchester United in 1956-57 and Southampton in 2020-21. They have progressed from their last two ties against top-flight opponents this season—Everton and Wolves—matching their previous record over 17 such ties.

Opta's model predicts a close match between Bournemouth and City. Guardiola's team wins in 43.2% of simulations, while Bournemouth triumphs in 31.5%. A draw is likely at 25.3%, suggesting penalties could decide the outcome.

City aims to salvage silverware from a challenging season despite Guardiola dismissing any bonus for their efforts related to potential Club World Cup prize money. They lead all quarter-finalists with an xG of 12.95, most goals (13), shots (73), shots on target (29), and best shot conversion rate (17.81%).

Bournemouth seeks European qualification through league performance or cup success regardless of Sunday's result. The Cherries' ability to compete with top teams means they should not fear any remaining competition teams as they aim for Wembley glory.