Why Underdogs Are Winning FIFA World Cup Upsets Through Tactics

Underdogs reshape the FIFA World Cup story

Mumbai, 30 June: Germany and the Netherlands are out, and the exits are being read as more than shocks. Paraguay and Morocco showed that underdogs are now tactically ready to beat bigger teams, not just defend and hope for luck at the FIFA World Cup 2026.

Germany’s 1-1 draw with Paraguay ended 4-3 on penalties, while Morocco drew 1-1 with the Netherlands and won 3-2 on penalties. In both games, the favourites had more of the ball, but the underdogs had clearer plans, better spacing and more control in key moments.

Germany lose control despite possession

Germany dominated possession and completed hundreds more passes against Paraguay. Even so, Paraguay stayed in a compact low block, closed space between the lines and limited clear chances. Germany could not turn ball control into threat, while Paraguay stayed patient and held their nerve in the shootout.

Morocco show belief and timing

Morocco looked dangerous from the start and created some of the better chances despite having 70% possession. The Dutch took the lead but failed to finish the match. Morocco levelled late, then looked stronger in extra time, both physically and mentally, before winning on penalties.

The result also pointed to Morocco’s growing confidence. They showed the same mentality that carried them to the semi-finals in 2022. The lesson was clear: possession alone does not decide knockout football, and Morocco no longer play like a team that expects to lose.

Pressure builds on Europe’s big teams

Germany and the Netherlands, with seven World Cup finals and four World Cup titles between them, were eliminated in the space of a day. The wider picture suggests Europe’s top teams are finding it harder to break down organised, athletic and fearless opponents at this level.

The gap between football’s leading sides and the rest has narrowed. Teams from Africa, Asia and South America now have players in top European clubs, and they arrive without the old sense of inferiority. That has made more matches open, tight and difficult for favourites.

Other matches to watch

Belgium vs Senegal, England vs DR Congo, Spain vs Austria, Argentina vs Cape Verde and Colombia vs Ghana are being watched as possible giant-killings. Senegal bring pace and experience, DR Congo have athletic strength, Austria press well, Cape Verde have little to lose, and Ghana offer a strong counter-attacking threat.