Aryna Sabalenka Faces US Open Must-Win To Keep World No. 1 Ranking

Aryna Sabalenka begins her US Open title defence with more than a third consecutive crown in New York on the line. The world No. 1 must win the tournament to guarantee she remains at the top of the WTA rankings, with Elena Rybakina closing in after a difficult run of results for the Belarusian.

Sabalenka had looked virtually untouchable earlier this season, becoming only the fifth woman to complete the Sunshine Double by winning Indian Wells and Miami back-to-back. That run gave her a 3,000-point lead at the top of the rankings and strengthened her position as the dominant player on the WTA Tour.

But the momentum has since disappeared.

The 28-year-old has gone 17-7 since winning in Miami, including quarter-final exits at the French Open and a fourth-round defeat at Wimbledon. With 2,000 points to defend in New York, her advantage over Rybakina has been reduced to just 434 points.

Sabalenka's mission at Flushing Meadows is therefore straightforward: win again, or risk losing the No. 1 ranking.

Aryna Sabalenka's biggest battle is with herself

Sabalenka's credentials on the biggest stage are beyond question.

She is a four-time Grand Slam champion, with two Australian Open titles and back-to-back US Open crowns in 2024 and 2025. She has also lost four major finals and six semi-finals, giving her one of the most consistent records at Grand Slam level among her generation.

It is her performances away from the biggest moments that have raised questions this year.

At the Cincinnati Open, Sabalenka led 5-1 in the first-set tie-break and 4-1 in the second set against 20-year-old Czech Sara Bejlek. Yet she failed to close out the match, losing 7-6 (9-7), 6-4.

It was the latest in a series of collapses that have pointed towards a dip in her mental sharpness.

At the previous tournament in Toronto, her serve deserted her during a last-16 defeat by world No. 19 Ekaterina Alexandrova. During the clay-court swing, she also lost after taking the opening set against Hailey Baptiste in Madrid, Sorana Cirstea in Rome and Diana Shnaider at Roland Garros.

For a player who has built her reputation on power, intensity and relentless competitiveness, the recent inability to maintain control has been an unusual weakness.

Elena Rybakina is waiting for her chance

The drop in Sabalenka's results has opened the door for Rybakina, who defeated her to win the Australian Open in January.

The Kazakh is now just 434 points behind Sabalenka and could take over at No. 1 without necessarily needing to win a match in New York, given the difference in points each player has to defend.

Rybakina can secure the top ranking if Sabalenka, Jessica Pegula and Coco Gauff fail to win the title.

Even if Sabalenka completes a successful title defence, Rybakina would still move to No. 1 by reaching the semi-finals.

The pressure is therefore unusually high on Sabalenka, who has spent 99 weeks at the summit.

Can Aryna Sabalenka rediscover her best tennis?

New York should, in theory, offer the ideal setting for a response.

All four of Sabalenka's Grand Slam titles have come on hard courts, and she has won the past two editions of the US Open. Few players have been able to match her combination of power and consistency when she is playing with conviction.

The challenge this time is less about proving that she can win at Flushing Meadows and more about restoring the composure that has deserted her in recent months.

Sabalenka insists she is already working on that side of her game.

"I work on my mental side of the game. I've been trying to reset my mind and to come back stronger," she said in New York.

"It's only a matter of time for me to come back."

That comeback now has an added dimension. Sabalenka is not merely defending her US Open crown. She is defending her place at the top of women's tennis.