French Open Men's Draw Blown Wide Open: Who Are the Favorites After Jannik Sinner's Shock Exit?

For months, the men's draw at Grand Slams felt like a two-man monopoly.

Jannik Sinner and Carlos Alcaraz had shared the previous nine major titles between them, turning tennis' biggest tournaments into a battle for everyone else to survive. Then Alcaraz withdrew from the French Open with a wrist injury. Sinner became the overwhelming favorite. And then, in one of the biggest upsets Roland Garros has witnessed in recent memory, he was gone before the third round.

Suddenly, a tournament that looked predictable has become wonderfully chaotic.

With Sinner out and Alcaraz absent, the race for the Coupe des Mousquetaires is wide open. But who stands to benefit the most?

Novak Djokovic has the experience, but can his body hold up?

The most obvious answer is Novak Djokovic.

At 39, the Serbian is now the only Grand Slam champion left in the men's draw. More importantly, he is chasing history. A 25th major title would move him clear of Margaret Court and give him the outright record for the most Grand Slam singles titles ever won.

On paper, Djokovic's season has been far from dominant. He arrived in Paris having played minimal tennis outside the majors and suffered an unexpected defeat to Dino Prizmic in Rome.

Yet Grand Slams have always been his natural habitat.

The Australian Open earlier this year was another reminder of that. Djokovic played himself into form over the fortnight and even eliminated Sinner en route to the final.

The concern isn't his tennis. It's whether his 39-year-old body can survive seven best-of-five-set matches, especially with temperatures soaring in Paris. If Djokovic gets through the opening week relatively unscathed, few players remaining possess either the experience or mental resilience to stop him.

Alexander Zverev may never get a better opportunity

If there is one player who should view Sinner's exit as a gift, it is Alexander Zverev.

The German has spent years carrying the unwanted label of being the best player never to win a Grand Slam. Three major final defeats-including a painful collapse from two sets up at the 2020 US Open-have only strengthened that narrative.

Now, the landscape has shifted dramatically.

Alcaraz is out. Sinner is out. Djokovic is approaching 40.

Zverev's clay-court credentials are unquestionable. Four of his seven Masters 1000 titles have come on the surface, and he has reached multiple deep runs at Roland Garros.

The question isn't whether he has the game. It's whether he can handle the pressure.

History suggests those are two very different things.

Casper Ruud could quietly become the biggest threat

While much of the attention is focused on Djokovic and Zverev, Casper Ruud might be the most dangerous contender lurking in the draw.

The Norwegian has reached two French Open finals and understands the demands of clay-court tennis better than almost anyone remaining in the tournament.

After a relatively quiet 2025 season, Ruud has looked rejuvenated in recent weeks, finishing runner-up in Rome and arriving in Paris with plenty of match practice under his belt.

His heavy topspin game naturally suits Roland Garros, and unlike some of his rivals, he has already proven he can survive the grind of a two-week clay-court major.

The challenge? A potential fourth-round showdown with Djokovic.

If Ruud can navigate that hurdle, his path suddenly becomes very interesting.

Could Rafael Jodar announce himself to the world?

Every Grand Slam produces a breakout star. This year's candidate could be Rafael Jodar.

The 19-year-old Spaniard has rapidly climbed the rankings and is already drawing comparisons to some of his country's greatest clay-court talents. His performances in Barcelona, Madrid, and Rome hinted at enormous potential, but Roland Garros could become his true arrival.

Jodar's movement, baseline power, and comfort on clay have stood out all season.

Even Toni Nadal has publicly backed him as one of the most promising players of his generation.

Winning seven matches at a Grand Slam remains an enormous ask for any teenager. Yet with the draw suddenly fractured, Jodar may find opportunities opening up faster than anyone expected.

Felix Auger-Aliassime and the top-half opportunity

Perhaps nobody benefited more from Sinner's defeat than Felix Auger-Aliassime.

The Canadian now finds himself as one of the highest-ranked players in an unexpectedly vulnerable section of the draw.

The problem is consistency.

Auger-Aliassime has often shown flashes of brilliance throughout his career, only to make life unnecessarily difficult for himself in the early rounds. That pattern has continued in Paris, where he has already spent significant time on court.

Still, the path ahead is undeniably clearer.

If he can preserve his energy and avoid lengthy battles, his first Grand Slam final suddenly feels far more attainable.

Don't overlook the outsiders

Part of what makes this French Open so fascinating is the sheer number of players who can realistically dream.

Frances Tiafoe has the firepower to trouble anyone. Flavio Cobolli is playing some of the cleanest tennis of his career. Karen Khachanov and Andrey Rublev remain dangerous floaters capable of upsetting higher seeds.

Then there are the wildcards.

French teenager Moise Kouame has become one of the stories of the tournament, while Juan Manuel Cerundolo has already proven he is capable of producing the unexpected.

When the favorite disappears before the first weekend, belief spreads quickly through the locker room.

So who will win Roland Garros after Jannik Sinner exit?

If the draw was being played on paper, Zverev would probably sit at the top of the list.

If experience is the deciding factor, Djokovic remains the safest pick.

If clay-court pedigree matters most, Ruud deserves serious consideration.

But perhaps the biggest lesson from Sinner's stunning exit is that certainty no longer exists.

Only 48 hours ago, this looked like Sinner's tournament to lose. Now, for the first time in years, the men's draw feels genuinely unpredictable.

And that uncertainty may be the most exciting thing to happen to men's tennis in a very long time.