ICC World Cup 2023: New Zealand, Pakistan Or Afghanistan - Who Will India Face In The Semifinal?

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ICC World Cup 2023 semifinal spots have been confirmed by two teams so far - India and South Africa with four other teams likely fighting for two more spots in the last four of the tournament.

Rohit Sharma-led Team India sealed the top spot in the World Cup 2023 points table following a thumping 243-run victory over second-placed South Africa at the Eden Gardens in Kolkata on Sunday (November 5).

That victory meant, India will remain on top irrespective of their final league game result against Netherlands, meaning the Men in Blue will be playing the first semifinal of the ongoing show-piece tournament at the Wankhede Stadium in Mumbai on November 15.

While their semifinal date and venue is confirmed, their opponent is yet to be decided and will be confirmed this week when the final round of league stage fixtures take place. But who are the likely team to face them in the ICC World Cup 2023 semifinal?

Who will India face in ICC World Cup 2023 Semifinal?

As it stands, there are four teams in the race and two more teams mathematically still alive. Australia (10 points), New Zealand (8 points), Pakistan (8 points) and Afghanistan (8 points) are the most likely teams to grab the remaining two spots in the semifinal.

Meanwhile, Sri Lanka (4 points) and Netherlands (4 points) also have a slim chance of sealing a spot. However, the probablity of their progress is not only in their hands as they will need other results to go their way.

With six teams in the race for two spots in ICC World Cup 2023 semifinal, here is a look at the semifinal chances for all the aforementioned teams that will be in action during this week:

Australia World Cup 2023 Semifinal Chances

The record champions have won five matches so far and lost two, to currently occupy third spot with a net run rate (NRR) of +0.924. Pat Cummins-led side still need to play another semifinal aspirant - Afghanistan on November 7 and lowly Bangladesh on November 11.

Here is how Australia can seal a spot: Win their two remaining matches to finish on 14 points and be guaranteed qualification or win one of their remaining matches to finish on 12 points and be guaranteed qualification.

Even if they lose both their remaining matches, they can still progress, but they will need to finish with a higher net run rate than at least two of the other teams (New Zealand, Afghanistan, Pakistan) that can also finish on 10 points.

New Zealand World Cup 2023 Semifinal Chances

The last two edition runners up have won four and lost four to currently sit in third with a NRR of +0.398, which is slightly better than the other two below them, and the Kiwis can improve on that in a must-win game against Sri Lanka on November 9.

Here is how New Zealand can seal semifinal spot: Win their remaining match to finish on 10 points, and finish with a higher net run rate than at least two of the other teams (Australia, Afghanistan, Pakistan) that can also finish on 10 points

Even if they lose to Sri Lanka, they can still qualify depending on the other results. They will want Pakistan and Afghanistan lose their remaining matches, and finish with a higher NRR than the many other teams (Pakistan, Afghanistan, Sri Lanka & Netherlands) that can finish on eight points.

Pakistan World Cup 2023 Semifinal Chances

The 1992 champions, who were down and out, have brought their campaign back on track with 4 wins and 4 defeats to occupy fifth spot with a NRR of +0.036, which can be affected when they take on England in their final league match on November 11.

Here is how Pakistan can book a semifinal spot: Win their remaining match to finish on 10 points, and finish with a higher net run rate than at least two of the other teams (Australia, New Zealand, Pakistan) that can also finish on 10 points

Even if they lose their remaining match, they could still finish in the top four, but that depends on New Zealand and Afghanistan results. Along with that, they will need to finish with a higher NRR than the other teams that could finish on eight points.

Afghanistan World Cup 2023 Semifinal Chances

The giant slayers have done well so far, registering 4 wins and 3 defeats to currently sit in sixth position only due to an inferior NRR of -0.330. They can push for a stunning finish in the top four whey they face Australia on November 7 and South Africa on November 10.

Here is how Afghanistan can qualify: Win their remaining two matches to finish on 12 points and be guaranteed qualification or win one of their remaining matches to finish on 10 points, but need to finish with a higher NRR than at least two of the other teams (Australia, New Zealand, Pakistan) that can also finish on 10 points

If they lose their remaining two matches, they will finish on eight points, but can still go throug only if New Zealand and Pakistan lose their remaining matches, and they themselves have a better NRR compared to the other teams that can finish on eight points.

Netherlands World Cup 2023 Semifinal Chances

Netherlands simply need to win their remaining matches by big margin, and hope New Zealand, Pakistan and Afghanistan lose their matches by huge margins to stand a slim chance of qualification.

Most Probable Semifinal Opponent For India

Going by the difficulty of the remaining fixtures, Afghanistan will need to be at their best to finish anything above eight points with a better NRR. However, if they beat Australia, then the pressure will be on New Zealand and Pakistan.

So, if Afghanistan beats Australia and South Africa, that could also put pressure on the five time champions to win their final league match against Bangladesh at all cost. South Africa and Australia also could finish in fourth and be up against India in the semifinal.

But to be realistic, the chances are that New Zealand could be the semifinal opponent for India if they beat Sri Lanka due to their little healthy NRR. Pakistan also could be close, but they face a tricky fixture against England in their last match.

If Pakistan finish in fourth place, then India will play their arch-rivals at the Eden Gardens in Kolkata instead of Wankhede Stadium in Mumbai. This was announced when the schedule was released earlier in the year.