WTC Final 2025: India, Australia, Sri Lanka & South Africa – Which Two Teams Will Qualify For Lord’s Showdown?

India and Australia are front-runners in the race to qualify for the World Test Championship (WTC) Final 2025, but the results in recent weeks things are getting tigher on top of the standings.

Pace-setters India's series loss to New Zealand sees their percentage of points won drop to 62.82, which is very close to second-placed Australia, whose percentage of points won is 62.50.

World Test Championship Final 2025 scenarios

Despite the 0-2 series loss, India still sit on top, but their opponents New Zealand made huge leap as they got back into the top four with a percentage of points won going up to 50.00. Apart from them, South Africa also made big strides following the victory over Bangladesh.

England, Pakistan, West Indies and Bangladesh have fallen out of the race after recent run of results in the longes format. Pakistan beat England 2-1, but are unlikely to cross the required percentage of points won even if they win their remaining games.

India and Australia are well on course for a rematch from the 2023 final at the Oval in London. But the likes of Sri Lanka, New Zealand and South Africa remain in contention of claiming a coveted top two spot on the standings and earning a place at next year's one-off Test at Lord's.

As the WTC 2023-25 cycle approaches climax stage with several teams being lined up to face off in the upcoming two months, here is a look at how the scenario looks for the current top in the World Test Championship standings and which team is well placed to reach WTC Final 2025:

First - India - 62.82 per cent of possible points

Remaining series: New Zealand (home, one Test), Australia (away, five Tests)
Best possible finish: 74.56 per cent

The two-time World Test Championship runners-up were looking good for a place at next year's final, but consecutive slip-ups at home against New Zealand have left the door open for opposition sides.

While Rohit Sharma's team still maintains a narrow lead at the top of the standings, another loss in the third Test against the Black Caps will see them travel to Australia next month needing to win at least four of their matches Down Under to ensure qualification, as per ICC.

Regardless of what happens in Mumbai against New Zealand, the five-match series against Australia at the end of the year will be pivotal for India and their chances of reaching a third straight World Test Championship final.

Second - Australia - 62.50 per cent of possible points

Remaining series: India (home, five Tests), Sri Lanka (away, two Tests)
Best possible finish: 76.32 per cent

Reigning World Test Championship winners Australia are on track for a second consecutive appearance in the final, but Pat Cummins' side will still need to win a minimum of four of their remaining seven Tests if they are to defend the title they won in 2023.

The one advantage that Australia have over India is they have two Tests in Sri Lanka next year, meaning they could theoretically draw 2-2 with Rohit Sharma's side and stay in contention for a place in the final ahead of that trip to Asia.

But first things first for Australia, who have a poor recent record at home against India and will be keen to regain the Border-Gavaskar Trophy for the first time in over a decade.

Third - Sri Lanka - 55.56 per cent of possible points

Remaining Series: South Africa (away, Two Tests), Australia (home, two Tests)
Best Possible Finish: 69.23%

A head-turning victory over England in the third Test in England means Sri Lanka could still make a push for a World Test Championship Final berth with three more wins from their remaining four Tests.

Their task will be difficult, with two Tests scheduled in South Africa at the end of November and a further two-match series at home against reigning champions Australia in 2025.

If Sri Lanka can pinch one victory in South Africa, it could lead to a grandstand finish on home soil with the top two spots potentially still to be decided in the final series of the cycle.

Fourth - New Zealand - 50 per cent of possible points

Remaining series: India (away, one Test), England (home, three Tests)
Best possible finish: 64.29%

Winning a first-ever series in India has given New Zealand some hope of claiming a second World Test Championship title, but they still have plenty of work to do if they are to finish in the top two places in the standings.

The Black Caps will likely need to win all four of their remaining Tests to make it through to the final, meaning they will have to complete series sweeps over India (they have already won two Tests on the trot there) and England at home if they are to do so. It's not impossible, but will be tough going for the Kiwis.

Fifth - South Africa - 47.62 per cent of possible points

Remaining series: Bangladesh (away, one Test), Sri Lanka (home, two Tests), Pakistan (home, two Tests)
Best possible finish: 69.44 per cent

A first win in the sub-continent for more than 10 years has given South Africa hope of reaching next year's World Test Championship final, but they will likely need to replicate that success in the second Test against Bangladesh and then win three of their four contests on home soil at the end of the year.

The two-match home series against Sri Lanka at the end of November will be the crucial one for the Proteas, as a series-sweep there will boost their own chances of reaching the final and put an end to any hopes the island nation had of reaching the title decider.

South Africa are a genuine threat to the top teams given they have four more matches at home, but getting that second consecutive triumph in Bangladesh is also going to be pivotal for their prospects.